891
FXUS64 KCRP 142040
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
340 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Key Message:

- Low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
  tonight through the day Sunday for the Rio Grande Plains into
  southern Coastal Bend

- Widespread moderate risk of heat-related impacts Sunday

Tropical Storm Ileana along the west coast of Mexico will advect
Pacific moisture and PVA eastern into portions of South Texas
tonight through Sunday. Latest guidance shows an axis of enhanced
moisture with PWATs 2.2-2.4" along the Rio Grande Plains into the
southern Coastal Bend. The aforementioned area (south and west of
I-37) will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms with a low to
medium chance (20-40%). There will be a distinct gradient of
moisture with the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads
in an area of normal PWATs values 1.5-1.7".

The projected mid-level shortwave from Ileana will move eastward
into the NW Gulf Sunday night and be replaced by dry northwesterly
flow aloft as a ridge builds over Texas. Rain chances diminish
across the area Monday night.

Mostly cloudy skies over the Rio Grande Plains and southern
Coastal Plains will limit high temperatures to low 90s, whereas
the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads will have more
breaks in clouds and less moisture, allowing for highs to climb
into the mid 90s. Heat index values will range from 105-109
primarily over the Coastal Plains, resulting in a moderate risk of
heat-related impacts. Lows will stay in the mid to upper 70s with
increased cloud cover tonight, but drier air and clearer skies
Sunday night will drop lows a few degrees, into the low to mid
70s. Tide levels will continue to remain below coastal flood
concerns as swell periods sit around 4 seconds with wave heights
of only 1-2 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Low to medium (20-35%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday
out west

- Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts across the Brush
Country, and Minor to Moderate across the remainder of South Texas
through the end of the work week

The long term period begins with remnant deep moisture moving into
the region from the tropical system in the Pacific which will
combine with moisture also advecting in from the Gulf of Mexico.
Associated energy is expected to combine with the sea breeze which
will allow for at least a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms to develop mainly in the Brush Country Monday. Some
drier air aloft should keep the showers and thunderstorms mostly in
check though. Looking forward through the end of the week, expect a
daily low chance for showers and thunderstorms each day with the
arrival of the sea breeze.

Temperatures will be in the 90s each day through the remainder of
the week. Expect heat indices to approach 110 with the presence of
that low level moisture. This is expected to lead to a Moderate to
Major risk for heat related impacts mainly in the Brush Country
though some isolated areas along the Coastal Bend cannot be ruled
out. For now though, expect Minor to Moderate for the remainder of
South Texas through the end of the week. With heat indices flirting
around that 110 mark, we will monitor the potential need for a heat
advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Conditions have improved to VFR across South Texas early this
afternoon and will persist through majority of the period.
Southeasterly winds will be rather light at 10-15 knots sustained
and gusts up to 20 knots through this evening before decreasing
to below 10 knots overnight. Patchy fog and MVFR ceilings over the
Coastal Plains will be a concern for ALI/VCT from 10-14Z.
Tropical Storm Ileana just offshore of the western coast of
Mexico will eject mid-level lift support eastward towards the Rio
Grande. This disturbance will allow for the low chance (30%) of
showers and storms over the Rio Grande Plains overnight into
Sunday. Only included a prob30 at LRD as it contains the greatest
chances of receiving showers or thunderstorms but left COT out due
to low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A weak south to southeast flow will persist through Monday. There
is a low 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day on
Sunday as Pacific moisture advects from Pacific Tropical Storm
Ileana. Weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow will then
persist through the end of the week. There is a low (10-20%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  90  76  92 /   0  10  10  10
Victoria          75  97  74  97 /   0  20  20  10
Laredo            79  90  76  95 /  30  40  20  40
Alice             77  94  74  96 /   0  20  10  20
Rockport          80  89  77  92 /   0  10   0  10
Cotulla           79  94  75  99 /  10  20   0  10
Kingsville        78  93  76  94 /   0  20  10  20
Navy Corpus       81  87  79  88 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ241>243.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...EMF/94