Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
880 FXUS64 KCRP 211935 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 235 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Mid level ridge positioned over the brush country this afternoon will result in warm and mostly dry conditions. Pockets of deeper moisture along the coast will maintain a slight chance of showers through early evening. Expect partly cloud skies overnight with some light patchy fog toward morning across the inland coastal plains. Should be less fog tonight than last night however. The mid level ridge will shift eastward to the coast on Sunday while weakening slightly. Meanwhile drier air in the h85-h7 levels advects into the area from the gulf. This should provide a slightly stronger cap on Sunday reducing our rainfall chances. Given the slightly weaker ridge, max temperatures may be a degree or two less on Sunday and just above climatology. Light onshore winds will persist through the period. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Mid-level ridging will be flattening out as we start the long term period with troughing digging in from the north. The future of this trough will be the driver for our upcoming weather and the details of it have not shown great consistency in details yet. Latest guidance cuts off a lot farther south, which could actually push the cold front we have been mentioning into our area. Confidence in this happening is low at this time with ensemble guidance still all over the place as far as if the front can make it through. Temperatures above normal early in the week should drop a couple of degrees though by late week with increased moisture and the troughing, regardless of frontal passage. This trough being anchored over us should also help to steer the disturbance currently being monitored in the NW Caribbean to the east of our area. There remains a 60% chance for development on this disturbance, and if it develops would push some increased swells toward our coast by mid/late week. At this point only a modest increase is noted in the forecast, but this could lead to an increased rip current risk and potentially some minor coastal flooding. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Expect VFR conditions across South Texas this afternoon with SCT-BKN cloud decks above 4kft. A few showers will possible near the NQI-ALI terminals. MVFR ceilings and patchy fog will develop late tonight across the inland coastal plains from ALI-BEA-VCT. Any fog should burn off by 14z. Expect slightly drier conditions on Sunday with less cloud cover and less shower activity. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through the weekend along with isolated showers. The combination of light winds and sufficient low level moisture may lead to tropical funnel development Sunday morning. Light onshore flow persists into early next week before increasing to weak to moderate by mid- week. Swell heights are expected to increase the latter half of the week as a disturbance moves into the Gulf of Mexico. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 90 76 91 / 0 10 0 20 Victoria 73 94 72 94 / 0 10 0 30 Laredo 76 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 74 94 73 94 / 0 10 0 20 Rockport 80 92 78 91 / 0 10 10 30 Cotulla 76 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 76 92 74 93 / 0 10 0 30 Navy Corpus 81 88 80 88 / 10 10 10 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM/75 LONG TERM....PH/83 AVIATION...JM/75