Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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648 FXUS64 KCRP 161131 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 631 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Key Messages: - Low chance (<5%) of excessive heavy rain today. - Low to medium (20-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms for Monday over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains - Minor to moderate heat impact risk across South Texas, today and Monday. Most of the key messages for this forecast cycle focus on today as the PWAT values remain over 2.00" over the Rio Grande Plains and the Brush Country. The chances of rain (>15%) remain south of TX-624 and 358 with the highest chances (60%) in the area south of LRD in the Rio Grande Plains. At 07z/16 (this morning), there is little activity on radar, expect for mainly light shower/sprinkles/virga in the Rio Grande Plains with are focused on a sfc trough that runs from the Gulf and up the RGV and a weak 500 mb shortwave that is slowly moving toward the forecast area. While the showers will continue into the morning, the expectation is that there will be an uptick of activity by the afternoon as we reach peak heating and the 500 mb shortwave is in the forecast area. PWAT values will remain above 2.00" and with slow moving showers and thunderstorms it would not be out of the question for a localized flooding. However, as we get closer to evening, then troughs move out of South Texas and are replaced with the 500 mb ridge reasserting itself over the Panhandle and sfc high building down from the Ohio Valley. Dry air builds into the region as well overnight, with little wind flow over the region, and low level moisture from the rain we run a risk (20-40%) for patchy fog, especially near Alice and Victoria. With the 500 mb and sfc ridges building back into South Texas, skies will become mostly sunny for Tuesday and with that gradual warming over the next couple of days. Temperatures will begin to warm gradually, with around 90 in the southwest (LRD) to near 100 (Victoria Crossroads) today, and mid 90s to around 100 on Tuesday. The heat index risk, is mainly minor today(there are some area of moderate), and a split of minor and moderate for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts mid to late week. Ridging aloft will maintain generally benign weather conditions across South Texas through the Extended range. The combination of warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints will continue to pose our main threat, as heat index values climb back into the 105-114 range. Heat Advisories will likely be required, with the warmest days expected to be Wednesday through Friday. The HeatRisk will be at Moderate to Major levels through the end of the work week. Therefore, heat related impacts will be possible. A few showers and thunderstorms may still be able to develop daily along the sea breeze provided enough low-level moisture available, but PoPs will remain below 20% all week. By the weekend, a mid-level trough is progged to transition into the Central Plains, while the center of the High drifts southwestward. However, the energy associated to the aforementioned system will stay well north of the area, limiting our convective chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The morning will remain quiet, although the expectation is that ALI and possibly CRP will get MVFR CIGS or VSBYs within the first hour of the TAFs. VCT has been IFR for a few hours and will continue until about 14z. Moisture will continue to stream toward the NW in the RGV and an upper disturbance will move through the region during the afternoon. LRD has a 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon while ALI and CRP are around 30% chance. VCT and COT look to remain relatively quiet all day. This evening, the convection should move out or diminish over the region as drier air moves into South Texas. VCT and ALI have about a 30-40% chance of having their VSBYs fall below 5SM by 12z/Tue. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A weak south to southeast flow will continue through Tuesday. There is a low chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms in the waters this afternoon. Onshore flow will then strengthen slightly to weak to moderate through next weekend. There is a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 75 92 77 / 10 0 10 0 Victoria 95 74 96 74 / 10 0 10 0 Laredo 89 75 94 76 / 60 10 20 0 Alice 94 73 96 75 / 30 0 10 0 Rockport 88 77 92 79 / 10 0 10 0 Cotulla 96 75 97 77 / 10 0 10 0 Kingsville 93 74 94 77 / 40 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 89 79 88 80 / 20 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM....ANM AVIATION...JSL/86