145
FXUS64 KCRP 220513
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Mid level ridge positioned over the brush country this afternoon
will result in warm and mostly dry conditions.  Pockets of deeper
moisture along the coast will maintain a slight chance of showers
through early evening. Expect partly cloud skies overnight with some
light patchy fog toward morning across the inland coastal plains.
Should be less fog tonight than last night however. The mid level
ridge will shift eastward to the coast on Sunday while weakening
slightly. Meanwhile drier air in the h85-h7 levels advects into
the area from the gulf. This should provide a slightly stronger
cap on Sunday reducing our rainfall chances. Given the slightly
weaker ridge, max temperatures may be a degree or two less on
Sunday and just above climatology. Light onshore winds will
persist through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Mid-level ridging will be flattening out as we start the long term
period with troughing digging in from the north. The future of this
trough will be the driver for our upcoming weather and the details
of it have not shown great consistency in details yet. Latest
guidance cuts off a lot farther south, which could actually push the
cold front we have been mentioning into our area.  Confidence in
this happening is low at this time with ensemble guidance still all
over the place as far as if the front can make it through.
Temperatures above normal early in the week should drop a couple of
degrees though by late week with increased moisture and the
troughing, regardless of frontal passage.  This trough being
anchored over us should also help to steer the disturbance currently
being monitored in the NW Caribbean to the east of our area. There
remains a 60% chance for development on this disturbance, and if it
develops would push some increased swells toward our coast by
mid/late week.  At this point only a modest increase is noted in the
forecast, but this could lead to an increased rip current risk and
potentially some minor coastal flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next few hours
before some sites drop to MVFR/IFR. Patchy fog is expected to
develop tonight once again with a low chance of isolated dense fog
which could drop ALI and VCT down to IFR. Due to low confidence,
went with a tempo at this time. Any fog that develops tonight should
dissipate by tomorrow morning returning all sites back to VFR. Winds
will increase to moderate levels once again tomorrow before
decreasing to under 10 knots after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through the
weekend along with isolated showers. The combination of light
winds and sufficient low level moisture may lead to tropical
funnel development Sunday morning. Light onshore flow persists
into early next week before increasing to weak to moderate by mid-
week. Swell heights are expected to increase the latter half of
the week as a disturbance moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  91  75  91 /   0  20  10  40
Victoria          72  94  72  94 /   0  30  10  40
Laredo            74  95  75  94 /   0  10  10  20
Alice             73  94  73  94 /   0  20  10  40
Rockport          78  91  77  92 /  10  30  10  40
Cotulla           74  96  75  95 /   0  10  10  20
Kingsville        74  93  74  92 /   0  30  10  40
Navy Corpus       80  88  79  88 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...TC/95