180
FXUS64 KCRP 221112
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
612 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a fairly active pattern as
the upper level ridge that has been in place is being nudged east by
a digging trough across the Four Corners region. At the surface, a
cold front can be analyzed across the northern portions of the
state. This boundary will sag south as we head into the work week,
eventually stalling north of us Monday afternoon. Rain chances will
be very low today. A few CAMS want to develop some isolated activity
through the day. However, much drier air will filter into the mid
levels which will help keep us dry. Low level moisture trapped
beneath this drier air will help promote another round of fog
tonight across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads as winds
become light overnight. Moisture creeps back into the area on Monday
so we will see PoPs jump back into the 20-30% range across the
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.

High temps today and tomorrow will settle into the low to mid 90s
along with heat indices around 100-105 degrees. This will warrant a
minor to moderate heat risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A mid level ridge will continue to be eroded as a mid to upper level
trough digs into the Texas. The previous few nights guidance, had
the front stalling and dissipating before it reaches the region.
There are now a few different solutions for this front, with some
depicting it reaching South Texas as the trough digs further south.
Given the variability in the guidance confidence will remain low. We
can still expect some precipitation from this with moisture pooling
into the region with the front stalling to the north Monday in
combination with the sea breeze through Thursday. A secondary surge
of high pressure will dry things out towards the end of the week.
Regardless of the result of the front the area will likely still see
temperatures in the remaining in the 90s. With the presence of the
moisture in the region, a Minor to Moderate risk for heat related
impacts will effect South Texas through the end of the week.

The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting a broad area of low
pressure to form in the northwestern Caribbean Sea over the next few
days (HIGH 70%). This system is not expected to directly impact
South Texas though we could potentially see some minor impacts such
as hazardous marine conditions, minor coastal flooding, and
increased rip currents. Continue to check back for future updates
and for more information visit hurricanes.gov.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

MVFR conditions have been slow to develop this morning with ALI
just now seeing some patchy fog develop. With light winds in
place, we still have a window over the next couple of hours for
fog and low level stratus to settle in. VFR prevail by 14/15Z.
Southeasterly winds will increase through the day with gusts
around 20 knots possible. Winds will become light once again
overnight which may lead to another round of MVFR conditions,
mainly at ALI/VCT, closer to sunrise Monday morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue into the
work week. Isolated showers will be possible this morning
although coverage is expected to be less than the last couple of
mornings. The combination of light winds and sufficient low level
moisture may lead to tropical funnel development this morning.
Most of these funnel clouds will be short lived and typically do
not touch the ground. However, you should be prepared to seek
shelter in the event a funnel does reach the ground. Weak to
moderate at the start of the week will increase to more moderate
levels late in the work week. Low to moderate rain chances are
expected through the week as an upper level disturbance
approaches. Swell heights are expected to increase the latter half
of the week as a disturbance moves into the Gulf of Mexico. These
factors could lead to a brief period Small Craft Advisory
conditions Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  76  91  76 /  10   0  20  10
Victoria          94  74  94  73 /  10   0  30  10
Laredo            95  75  95  74 /   0   0  10   0
Alice             94  74  94  73 /  10   0  20   0
Rockport          92  79  92  78 /  10   0  30  10
Cotulla           97  75  96  75 /   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        92  76  92  75 /  10   0  20   0
Navy Corpus       88  80  88  79 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...TC/95