978
FXUS64 KCRP 151753
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Rain chances increased to high over the Brush Country (up to 90%)
as a swath of heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms move
slowly northwestward over Webb and Duval counties. Radar estimates
1-3" of rainfall has fallen over the area since midnight. A Flood
Advisory is out for the aforementioned area through the middle of
this afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop
near the Rio Grande as instability increases through the day and
moisture remains abnormally high at around the 99th percentile.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor flooding in the Rio Grande Plains this morning.

- Minor to moderate across South Texas, today and Monday.

- Low to medium (30-60% chance) of showers and thunderstorms today
for all of South Texas.

- Low to medium (20-40% chance) of showers and thunderstorms for
Monday over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains

This morning has been a bit complicated with the 500 mb vort max
that moved into the Rio Grande Plains overnight with the 2" PWAT
values, kicking off a round of heavy rain. While the rain looks to
be trending down this morning, another round is expected to be at
least close to the Rio Grande Plains, later this morning and
early this afternoon when the remnants of TS Ileana arrive. Just
like this morning`s convection, the next round is expected to
remain mainly in the west, and move southeast into Deep South
Texas by the evening. Then tonight another shortwave, which is
rather inactive when it gets to south Texas will move through and
bring drier air into the region and clear out the convection for
Monday morning. However, we look to still have some left over
moisture in the west so as to allow us to kick off one more small
bout of convection for Monday afternoon.

Of course, with the rain, there will be clouds, which will help us
remain a bit cooler than the last few days especially in the Rio
Grande Plains as high temperatures range from the mid 80s near LRD
to the mid 90s around VCT. Monday looks to shape up a bit warmer,
with areas south of a line from LRD to NGP expected to be less
than 95 degrees, and north of that line 95-100. So between today
and Monday, we should see less heat impacts today, with the Minor
to moderate impacts coming back for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts mid to late week.

Ridging will settle back over the region during the Extended period
bringing drier air aloft. However, daily low rain/storm chances will
remain in the forecast through late week as there will still be
enough low-level moisture around to combine with daytime instability
to spark a few showers along the sea breeze. A mid-level trough will
then follow over the weekend, crossing the Plains and maintaining a
low to medium precipitation chance in the forecast through Sunday
(<30%). In terms of hazards, the main headlines will once again be
the heat. Warm temperatures and high dewpoints will lead to heat
index values in the 105-114 range all week, with the warmest days
being Wednesday through Friday. Heat Advisories may be required at
later packages. The HeatRisk will be at Moderate to Major through
the end of the work week. Therefore, heat related impacts will be
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Heavy showers over the Brush Country and steady rain around LRD
will cause MVFR ceilings to stick around through at least the
next few hours before breaks to VFR are possible later in the
afternoon into early evening. However, I would not be surprised if
MVFR ceilings persist through the entire time period with
consistent convection around the area. MVFR ceilings also linger
over VCT but expect conditions to improve to VFR here shortly.
Light rain is advecting eastward across South Texas but greatest
impacts will remain focused over the Brush Country and LRD. Light
variable winds are expected through the forecast with patchy fog
and MVFR ceilings potential again over ALI/VCT from 09-14Z. Rain
chances diminish late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A weak south to southeast flow will persist through Monday. There
is a low 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day on
Sunday as Pacific moisture advects from Pacific Tropical Storm
Ileana. Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the
end of the work week. There is a low (15-30%) chance of showers
and thunderstorms daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  75  93  75 /  40  10  10   0
Victoria          94  73  95  73 /  20  10  10   0
Laredo            85  74  93  76 /  90  50  40   0
Alice             88  74  95  74 /  60  20  20   0
Rockport          88  77  90  78 /  30  10  10   0
Cotulla           89  74  97  76 /  90  10  10   0
Kingsville        89  75  94  75 /  60  30  20   0
Navy Corpus       88  79  90  79 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...EMF/94