118
FXUS64 KCRP 240846
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
346 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A mid to upper level trough will continue to push off to the east
over the Ohio River Valley as an mid level ridge builds in from the
west. A weak surface cold front will remain stalled to the north of
the region along Central Texas. Concurrently, low level moisture
will continue to return to the region. This is expected to allow for
isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly along the Coastal Bend
with the arrival of the sea breeze this afternoon. Tomorrow however,
the mid to upper level trough is expected to track further south
providing for more lift for storms to initiate, though drier air
aloft will keep these mostly isolated to scattered in nature. The
front should be through most of the area between Wednesday evening
to Thursday morning bringing drier air behind it. Though temperatures
will still remain in the 90s each day, Wednesday should be slightly
more bearable with less humidity beginning around the afternoon.
I know this wasn`t the "cold front" everyone was hoping for but
there are some silver linings. Lows will be in the low 70s across
much of the area Wednesday night with some 60s along the northern
portions of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Cold front pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning

- Increasing risk of rip currents and potential coastal flooding
Thursday and Friday in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine

A cold front is expected to push across South Texas sometime on
Wednesday night or Thursday, depending on which model you believe.
The NAM continues to be a bit slower than the GFS/ECMWF. Will lean
toward the NAM a bit more as, as previously mentioned, it usually
handles these shallow airmasses better. With that, it looks like the
cold front will pass through sometime Thursday, with dry air
filtering in behind.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will move quickly northward through
Thursday across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to
strengthen into a hurricane, reinforcing drier air in wake of the
front over South Texas through the latter part of this week. This
will lead to minimal rain chances through Saturday. In addition,
daily max heat indices and temperatures will be limited to the 90s
with low temperatures dropping into the 60s Thursday night and
Friday night. Currently, Corpus Christi is forecast to be in the
mid to upper 60s Friday morning.

Last but certainly not least, swell periods increase to over 10
seconds along with wave heights 4-6 feet. Although we have offshore
flow, energy propagating from current PTC9 could lead to wave runup
and increase the risks for coastal flooding and rip currents.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Overall thinking remains the same, as VFR conditions are expected to
persist through much of the overnight hours. However, patchy fog may
develop before sunrise, reducing VSBYs to MVFR levels across ALI and
VCT. There is a slight chance VSBYs could briefly drop to IFR,
though confidence in this is low. Brief periods of MVFR CIGs are
also possible, but unlikely given the dry mid-level air. By late
Tuesday morning and into the afternoon, there is a chance of showers
and thunderstorms moving east to west along the sea breeze. SHRA
activity should decrease in coverage after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Weak onshore flow will continue through midweek, bringing a low to
medium chance of showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday, winds
will strengthen slightly, becoming moderate and shifting to the
north by Thursday as a cold front moves in. This could lead to
brief periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Rain chances
will decrease after the front passes, with no significant
precipitation expected the rest of the week. Potential Tropical
Cyclone 9 will move north across the Gulf of Mexico resulting in
increased swells toward the week`s end. For updates on tropical
cyclone development, visit hurricanes.gov.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  76  93  73 /  30  20  30  10
Victoria          94  72  93  68 /  30  20  30   0
Laredo            95  75  96  71 /  10  20  30  10
Alice             93  73  95  71 /  30  10  30  10
Rockport          92  77  93  74 /  30  20  30  20
Cotulla           96  75  97  71 /  10  20  20  10
Kingsville        91  74  93  72 /  40  10  30  10
Navy Corpus       88  79  88  76 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...KRS