Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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276 FXUS64 KCRP 181119 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 619 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Short term forecast remains on PTC1. Tropical Storm watches have been upgraded to Tropical Storm warnings this morning as we wait on a low level closed circulation to develop. Quite a bit of convection noted with it early this morning, stretching north from the Yucatan toward the Texas/Louisiana border. Isolated convection does spread toward the Middle Texas coast, but not seeing much activity at this time. Expect that to increase as this system drifts eastward over the next couple of days. Satellite derived PWAT values indicate PWAT values around 1.8" along the coast this morning with 2.2 inches a bit offshore before we lose the data to cloud cover. Model guidance still indicates we could approach 3 inches by Wednesday morning. Along those lines, heavy rain continues to be the primary concern with this system, and rainfall totals of 6-9" are expected along the Coastal Bend with localized higher amounts possible where some of the healthier bands set up. Rainfall rates will be a concern with 2- 3"/hour rates increasing the concern for flash flooding. Most widespread/heaviest convection looks to be after midnight Tuesday night through late Wednesday. The next notable impact from this system will be coastal flooding. We`re already seeing water reaching the dunes along the coast (as best we can in the dark anyway). Tide levels at Port Aransas have topped 2" MSL which is already coastal flood advisory criteria. We are likely to see another foot or two on top of this by tonight into Wednesday. These levels would completely shut off beach roads, and push water over many low/coastal flood prone areas along the bays including Rockport, North Beach and Port O`Connor. Tide levels will begin to subside on Thursday. Not much has changed with the wind forecast. Highest winds associated with system remain displaced well north of the center, so while landfall of an eventual cyclone is expected to be in Mexico, the strongest winds will be pushing into the Middle Texas Coast. Over the waters, winds gusting to 55 mph or higher are possible, but winds will quickly diminish over land, with 45 to 50 mph gusts possible along the coast, especially within some of the convective bands. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Monday) Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 By late Thursday into Thursday night we`ll be winding down impacts from the PTC, though moisture will linger and we`ll keep rain chances through at least Friday, and possibly into the weekend as the surface ridge remains over the eastern US instead of the southeastern US, allowing general weakness to persist over the western Gulf. High temperatures that will be in the low to mid-80s for mid- week will creep back up into the 90s by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Most locations are VFR currently, and will be much of the day, though showers and thunderstorms will be possible off and on for eastern sites. Tonight expect MVFR CIGS to set in. Rain chances increase late in the period again for mainly eastern sites. Probabilities are still low west at the end of this period but will increase tomorrow. Gusty east to northeasterly winds are expected this afternoon through the end of the period for eastern sites and at times west. && .MARINE... Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. Onshore winds will continue to increase today through Wednesday. Strong to very strong winds today approach gale force tonight and tomorrow. Gale force gusts are expected. Wave heights are expected to increase to 10-15 feet occasionally up to 18 feet across the coastal waters Tuesday through Thursday. Deep moisture will move into the area resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Rain chances trend down slightly heading into the weekend but we will still hold onto moderate rain chances through the weekend && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 77 84 79 / 50 80 100 90 Victoria 91 74 81 77 / 40 70 100 70 Laredo 99 78 86 76 / 10 10 90 90 Alice 94 76 83 77 / 50 60 100 90 Rockport 92 80 89 81 / 60 90 100 90 Cotulla 99 79 86 77 / 10 10 80 90 Kingsville 93 76 83 78 / 60 70 100 100 Navy Corpus 90 80 87 82 / 60 90 100 100 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447. Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ245-342>345- 347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM....PH AVIATION...PH/83