Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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014 FXUS64 KCRP 232342 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate heat risk today and tomorrow - Low (20-30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow night The region is currently under the influence of an elongated mid- level high with ridging over the eastern CONUS and troughing over the Plains. The pattern over South Texas will remain quasi-zonal for most of the short term period until the aforementioned trough digs southward, sending a surface front south towards the coast that looks to arrive mid week but more on that in the long term discussion. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain low with a few showers currently on radar and PWAT`s from 1.20" out west to 1.70" across eastern portions of the region. Have decided to maintain low 20-30% chances for any storms but chances will increase as we transition into the long term period as the cold front slowly sags towards the coast. Surface temperatures today and tomorrow will top out in the mid 80s near the coast to the mid 90s inland with overnight lows ranging in the 70s. Heat Indices for both days in the afternoon look to be 100- 105 leading to minor/moderate risk for heat stress related impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Key Messages: - Cold front pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning - Increasing risk of rip currents and potential coastal flooding Thursday and Friday in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine A deep cut-off low will dip southward into the Mississippi Valley region and push a `cold` front across South Texas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It is worth noting that the NAM (typically better with shallow air masses) has a slower progression of the front and doesn`t pass completely through until midday Thursday. Whereas, the GFS/ECMWF are slightly faster with passage Wednesday night and the CMC is the fastest with FROPA Wednesday evening. All in all, have maintained a medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front Wednesday as moisture pools and PWATs near 2.0" with lingering low chances Wednesday night. Lower confidence on Wednesday night rain chances as the trend of a slower passage would prolong chances of precipitation. I wouldn`t be surprised if this trend continues we see an uptick in Wednesday night chances in future forecasts. Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will move quickly northward Wednesday through Thursday across the eastern Gulf of Mexico as its forecast to strengthen into a hurricane, reinforcing drier air in wake of the front over South Texas through the latter part of this week. This will lead to minimal rain chances through Saturday. In addition, daily max heat indices and temperatures will be limited to the 90s with low temperatures dropping into the 60s Thursday night and Friday night. Currently, Corpus Christi is forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s Friday morning. The last time we felt the 60s at the Corpus Christi airport was May, 18th. We`ll welcome the relief of drier air! Last but certainly not least, swell periods increase to over 10 seconds along with wave heights 4-6 feet. Although we have offshore flow, energy propagating from current PTC9 could lead to wave runup and increase the risks for coastal flooding and rip currents. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the evening into the early overnight hours. MVFR VSBY`s are possible before sunrise tomorrow morning across ALI and VCT as patchy fog is expected to develop. VSBYs could briefly drop to IFR, but confidence is low at this time. Brief MVFR CIGs can also not be ruled out, but not expecting much as the mid-levels are dry. A chance of showers and storms is forecast late Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours from east to west along the sea breeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A generally weak onshore flow will persist through the middle of the week accompanied by a low to moderate chance for showers. Flow will become weak to moderate Wednesday and then moderate as it shifts northerly in response to a cold front Thursday. This may result in brief periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Rain chances then taper off behind the front with no mentionable PoP`s the remainder of the week. A developing tropical cyclone is forecast to enter into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the coming days and will result in increasing swells through the end of the week. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more information on tropical cyclone development. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 90 75 91 / 10 30 20 40 Victoria 74 94 72 94 / 10 30 20 40 Laredo 75 94 75 94 / 0 10 20 40 Alice 74 92 73 94 / 10 30 20 40 Rockport 79 92 77 92 / 10 30 30 40 Cotulla 76 97 75 96 / 0 20 20 30 Kingsville 76 91 75 93 / 10 30 20 40 Navy Corpus 80 88 79 89 / 20 30 30 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF/80 LONG TERM....EMF/94 AVIATION...KRS/98