003
FXUS64 KCRP 182226
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
526 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 521 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A Tropical Storm warning is in effect as an area of low pressure
spins over the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Gradual
strengthening has occurred during the day today and more
convection is developing around the low. Still difficult to
pinpoint the center as we watch for when it becomes a closed low.
The system is moving slowly towards the north near 6 mph and is
expected to turn northwest then west accompanied by an increase in
forward speed. Some increase in strength is expected as
atmospheric conditions are conducive for gradual development. This
system is currently progged to become a Tropical Storm by
tomorrow and landfall Thursday morning in Mexico. Most convection
today has been offshore with a few smaller storms making it
inland.

Satellite derived PWAT values are now over 2.0" along the coast
and is expected to increase to around 3.0" according to GEFS
ensemble plumes for KCRP. Heavy rain continues to be the primary
concern with this system, and rainfall totals of 4-10" are
expected along the Coastal Bend with localized higher amounts up
to 15" are possible where some of the heavier bands set up.
Rainfall rates will be a concern with 2-3"/hour rates increasing
the concern for flash flooding. The most widespread/heaviest
convection looks to be after midnight tonight through Thursday.

The next notable impact from this system will be coastal flooding. Storm
surge up to 3 feet and tidal levels will combine to result in
significant coastal flooding along the Middle Texas Coast. Tidal
levels at Port Aransas have topped 2" MSL which is already coastal
flood advisory criteria. P-ETSS guidance has tides approaching 3
feet which would result in significant coastal flooding. These
levels would completely shut off beach roads, and push water over
many low/coastal flood prone areas along the bays including
Rockport, North Beach and Port O`Connor. Tide levels will begin to
subside on Thursday.

Winds have increased little during this forecast package. Highest winds
associated with system remain displaced well north of the center, so
while landfall of an eventual cyclone is expected to be in Mexico,
the strongest winds will be pushing into the Middle Texas Coast.
Over the waters, winds gusting to 65 mph or higher are possible, but
winds will quickly diminish over land, with 45 to 55 mph gusts
possible along the coast, especially within some of the convective
bands.

Finally, there is a limited risk for tornadoes tomorrow across
most of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 521 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Thursday evening is when things are expected to taper off as the
system moves further inland. Moisture will linger and rain chances
remain through at least Friday and into the weekend as the
surface ridge remains over the eastern US with general weakness to
persist over the western Gulf. High temperatures that will be in
the low to mid-80s for mid-week will creep back up into the 90s by
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR ceilings will prevail across the area through this evening
with showers and thunderstorms possible intermittently for the
eastern TAF sites. MVFR ceilings will roll in after 00Z and linger
through tomorrow with brief periods of IFR during the morning
hours. Winds are expected to remain gusty through the remainder
of the period. Coverage for precipitation tomorrow will gradually
increase overnight and affect all sites by tomorrow morning.
Expect reduce visibilities and gusty with any passing shower or
storm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 521 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. Strong to very strong
onshore winds are occurring. Wave heights are expected to
increase to 13 feet up to around 20 feet across the coastal waters
Today through Thursday. Deep moisture will move into the area
resulting in a 80-100% chance of showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday. Rain chances trend down slightly heading into the
weekend but we will still hold onto a decent chances for showers
and storms as sufficient moisture remains in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  85  80  88 /  80  90 100  90
Victoria          76  82  77  88 /  70  90  70  70
Laredo            78  83  76  88 /  10  90 100  90
Alice             76  83  77  88 /  60  90 100  90
Rockport          79  90  82  91 /  90  90  90  90
Cotulla           79  85  77  89 /   0  80  90  80
Kingsville        76  84  78  87 /  80 100 100  90
Navy Corpus       81  87  83  90 /  90 100 100  90

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ229>234-239>247-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ245-342>345-
     347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...NP