446
FXUS61 KCTP 151828
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
228 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build southeastward into
Pennsylvania this weekend, providing sunshine, seasonable
temperatures and low humidity this weekend. For next week, an
anomalous subtropical ridge will build over the East Coast
accompanied by an extended period of hot and humid weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure building southeastward into PA will
provide fair weather this aftn with a good deal of sunshine,
seasonably warm temps and low humidity. Fair wx cu will
continue to develop overhead, but partly to mostly sunny skies
should prevail this afternoon.

Dry air above a weak inversion in the model soundings suggest
dewpoints will fall below NBM guidance this afternoon, so have
trended lower than the guidance.

Model guidance indicates there will be some cirrus drifting
over PA overnight, in advance of a weak shortwave cresting the
ridge axis over the Grt Lks. However, model RH profiles indicate
it should be relatively thin and not significantly affect
radiational cooling, which otherwise looks favorable under the
surface high. Have, therefore, undercut NBM min temps a bit,
with lows ranging from the low 40s in the coolest northern
valleys to the mid 50s in the urban centers of the Lower Susq
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high will pass east of PA Sunday, resulting in a
slightly warmer return southerly flow. After a pleasantly cool
start, it will be a seasonably warm afternoon with all but
perhaps the highest elevations topping 80 degrees.

A building subtropical ridge along the East Coast and the
passage of a warm front on Monday will herald the arrival of
more heat and humidity. There is an outside chc of a
shower/storm over the the higher terrain of the Allegheny
Plateau on Monday. Otherwise, it will be a very warm and
increasingly humid afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Temperatures will easily rise into the 90s through the extended
forecast period. Some question as to ultimately how high
temperatures will make it as central PA does typically struggle
to realize even the best outlooks for extreme heat. The last
event to touch 100 degrees came on the heels of a dewpoint
bomb in a localized sector of north central PA. In any event,
it will be anomalously hot with concerns for the elderly, pets,
and the general populae.

Mesoscale models are painting a precipitation chance on Tuesday
afternoon/evening. This may be realized as hot air accelerates
up the mountain ridges - giving it enough upward momentum to
touch off a few isolated showers/TSRA. Similar to a 1970s kid
making epic jumps on their bike over a perfectly shaped hill at
the elementary school - complete with a Fred Patek baseball
card in the wheel spokes providing the motorcycle sounds. The
atmosphere mirrors life - if you let it.

Otherwise, Tuesday through Thursday appear to hold the best
chance for the highest temperatures as 500 mb heights hang
around 600dm with a mid June sun angle.

Even as temperature relax toward next weekend, we may still see
temperatures above 90 areawide.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure is bringing high confidence in good VFR conditions
through the forecast period. Winds over the higher elevations
this afternoon have topped out above 10KTS but will diminish
with all other sites through sunset to generally calm.

Added VCFG to KBFD and KIPT as overnight low temperatures will
drop to today`s afternoon dewpoints. This a lower confidence
(20%-30%) forecast as conditions have been relatively dry and
the nights are as short as they get so temperatures will only
briefly bottom out at these values.

Outlook...

Sun-Wed...Predominantly VFR, with building heat next week.
Density altitude concerns possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Evanego
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Evanego
SHORT TERM...Evanego
LONG TERM...Tyburski
AVIATION...Tyburski