554
FXUS61 KCTP 250018
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
818 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead tonight bringing a clear and
cool summer night. Heat will build again by Wednesday leading to
a chance of thunderstorms by late in the day and Wednesday
night as a cold front passes. Dry weather on Thursday and Friday
will be followed by another cold front late Saturday or early
Sunday of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
We are starting to stabilize/stratify and the wind is also
starting to diminish. The upper trough is swinging to the east
and should allow clearing to complete. We`re still expecting fog
and perhaps some lower clouds to form in cooler spots (esp the
NW mtns) tonight. The temps are on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The center of high pressure moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast
Tuesday, resulting in a warmer return southwest flow. Still, sfc
dewpoints will remain in the 50s, making higher temperatures
still seem tolerable. Ensemble mean 850mb temps rising to near
17C supports highs mostly in the 80s, to near 90F in the Lower
Susq Valley.

A warm front lifting through the Eastern Grt Lks may result in
a shower or tsra Tuesday night, mainly over the NW Mtns. Surging
PWATs and falling heights ahead of an upstream cold front will
bring a much better chance of widespread showers/tsra Wednesday
afternoon. Latest guidance suggests shower/thunderstorm chances
hold off until late Wednesday afternoon or evening for most of
central pa. A ribbon of relatively strong mid level winds,
combined moderate instability, suggests organized convection and
locally severe weather is possible Wed PM. Latest ensemble
plumes indicates most likely aerial average rainfall Wed will be
around a half inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and storms will gradually exit to the the southeast on
Wednesday night as high pressure builds in. The midweek cold
front will reset the cycle similar to what today`s cold front
will do and usher in a similar stretch as Monday & Tuesday.
Thursday and Friday will consist of about 48 hours of lower
dewpoints, temperatures closer to average for this time of year,
and plenty of sunshine. Afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s,
overnight lows in the 50s and 60s (perhaps even upper 40s in the
northern mountains Friday morning), and dewpoints below 60F
will feel especially good with the persistent stretch of heat.

As high pressure shifts to the east on Friday, southerly flow
will support increasing temperatures and moisture into the
weekend. The chance for showers and storms will also ramp up
Saturday as a warm front lifts across the region. By Sunday, a
trailing cold front will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms and usher in another cooler stretch for the start
of July.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conds continue tonight and Tuesday. Evening breezes
will decrease after sunset and remain light on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR, no sig wx expected.

Wed...Restrictions possible in TSRA.

Thu...AM SHRA/TSRA with restrictions possible, drying out late.

Fri...Mainly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Evans/Steinbugl/Colbert