347
FXUS65 KCYS 061128
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
528 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather will continue through late week, with widespread
  highs in the 80s and lower 90s on Thursday and Friday.

- Saturday through Monday will see increasing chances for
  afternoon and evening showers and weak thunderstorms.

- Sunday and Monday will see the greatest coverage of late day showers
  and thunderstorms, while Tuesday and Wednesday will be warmer
  with a decrease in shower and thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Surface cold front moved through Cheyenne last night around 10
PM and is now being analyzed across northeast Colorado to
Laramie to Riverton this morning. Surface high pressure over
northeast Wyoming behind the front. Skies are clear across the
CWA this morning and are expected to remain so throughout the
day.

Challenge today will be temperatures. We got into the low 90s
across the southern Panhandle yesterday with 700mb temperatures
of +12 to +14C. They fell behind the front this morning...but
are expected to climb back to near what they were yesterday. So
went with similar afternoon highs as we had yesterday.

Upper ridge axis moves across the CWA this evening as the cold
front shifts east into Nebraska. Going to see increasing low
level humidity Friday...which will aid in two things. First for
fire weather...afternoon humidity will be much higher over
today. Second...increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
late Friday afternoon as GFS/ECMWF and SREF are all in good
agreement on showers/storms developing around 00Z Saturday.
This moisture sticks around into Saturday for what looks to be
another round of afternoon and evening showers and storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Saturday night/Sunday...Ridging aloft becomes more pronounced across
Wyoming, though with west flow aloft continuing and adequate low and
mid level moisture along with low level upslope lift, we expect
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, primarily
south of a Rawlins to Scottsbluff line. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler than Saturday with abundant cloud cover, with 700 mb
temperatures near 10 Celsius yielding high temperatures in the 70s.

Monday...West northwest flow aloft develops and with plenty of low
and mid level moisture available, scattered late day showers and
thunderstorms will be on tap again. Temperatures slightly warmer
than Sunday with less cloud coverage.

Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft remains, though with increasing
heights aloft along with warmer temperatures, and a decrease in low
and mid level moisture, we should see less coverage of late
day showers and thunderstorms. Slightly warmer with more sunshine
expected.

Wednesday...Even warmer as the flow aloft turns westerly, and with
700 mb temperatures near 16 Celsius, maximum temperatures will be in
the 80s to near 90 degrees. Warmer temperatures aloft will increase
the convective inhibition, and with less low and mid level moisture
around, only isolated late day showers and thunderstorms are
expected mainly near the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Northwest flow aloft will prevail today, before becoming west
tonight. Clear skies will be common. Winds will be generally
light and mainly under 10 knots.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN