Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
723 FNUS28 KWNS 172132 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... By mid week, large-scale troughing is anticipated from the Pacific coastline and northward/northeastward into central Canada. Further east, a broad mid to upper-level ridge will expand westward over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the end of the week. A fetch of deeper moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will make its way westward D3/Wednesday across most of NM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this moisture, upslope flow, and surface convergence. Some wetting rains may occur across the eastern half of NM within this deeper moisture, while isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Colorado River Basin, and just eastward, during the afternoon and evening. Much farther east across most of FL, easterly sustained surface winds around 15 mph should develop D3/Wednesday, although the opportunity for RH less than 35-40 percent appears very short lived across far northern FL and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. Moisture will continue to surge west-northwestward D4/Thursday as far west as the Four Corners region, with at least low, wetting precipitation chances expanding into eastern UT. Slightly drier sub-cloud conditions further south over the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau may support the opportunity for isolated dry thunder over increasingly receptive fuels. In addition to the Isolated Dry Thunder areas mentioned above, breezy south winds will likely develop D4/Thursday from central to eastern AZ. However, with overlapping RH increasing to above 15-20 percent, low critical probabilities are not warranted at this time. These breezy south winds will shift westward D5/Friday over west central AZ, but again RH will remain slightly too high, precluding the need for low critical probabilities. Increasing, deep westerly flow is appearing more likely late this weekend over the Pacific Northwest. By D7/Sunday, a mid to upper-level jet should extend through the base of shortwave trough moving onshore. Confidence has increased enough to introduce low critical probabilities east of the Cascades of WA, where drying, downslope westerly flow is anticipated. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$