853
FNUS28 KWNS 122221
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

...Summary...
Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in
conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become
more widespread late this week through early next week across
portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin
and Southwest.

...Synopsis...
A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the
forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over
the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow
in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and
subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching
cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher
probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if
similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north
across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry
westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering
the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base
near the southern Great Basin.

While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great
Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope
winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by
this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread
and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been
included there. These probabilities could increase depending on
later fuel assessments.

The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend
through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin.
Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this
trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an
increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities
spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a
dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and
additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the
Southwest if forecast confidence increases.

..Barnes.. 06/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$