353
FNUS28 KWNS 221947
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for
the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire
weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and
Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent
long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper
ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple
low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime
will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with
occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of
next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting
rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should
maintain antecedent dry conditions.

The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific
Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level
pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra
Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be
overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that
elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee
of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the
Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should
be comparatively stronger.

A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as
a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs
of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave
with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are
accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days.
However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other
long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights
may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to
converge on this windier solution.

..Moore.. 06/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$