779
ACUS48 KWNS 230816
SWOD48
SPC AC 230815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Wednesday...
Some threat for strong to severe storms may evolve from the OH
Valley into the Ozarks vicinity, in association with a
southeastward-moving cold front. However, the uncertain effects of
antecedent convection and a tendency for the front to become
displaced from stronger flow aloft render both the placement and
magnitude of the severe threat uncertain. Some severe threat could
also develop across parts of the Northeast, with a mid/upper-level
shortwave trough expected to move through the region in conjunction
with the cold front, but uncertainty remains regarding the potential
for moisture return and destabilization in advance of the front.

...D5/Thursday to D7/Saturday...
Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a rather amplified
mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the northern
CONUS, sometime during the Thursday to Saturday time frame. Some
important differences remain, however, regarding the timing of the
shortwave and the evolution of the surface pattern and moisture
return. In general, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential may
spread across parts of the northern/central Plains, upper
Midwest/Great Lakes, and potentially the Northeast late this week
into the weekend.

..Dean.. 06/23/2024