098
ACUS48 KWNS 110853
SWOD48
SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move
eastward from the Great Plains to the northeast, as a shortwave
trough moves northeastward from the Four Corners to the upper
Mississippi Valley. A somewhat narrow corridor of instability,
oriented from southeast to northwest, is forecast ahead of the
trough on Friday and Saturday. As the trough moves out into the
central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear
likely to develop across parts the instability corridor, with the
greatest convective coverage likely in the evening and overnight
period when the airmass is less likely to be capped. A severe threat
could be associated with the stronger cells within the clusters that
form near areas of moderate to strong instability. The main
uncertainty involves the position of the instability axis relative
the approaching trough. Some models suggest that the two will be far
removed from each other, which introduces a lot of uncertainty
concerning any potential scenario.

On Sunday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the upper
Mississippi Valley, and out-run the stronger instability located in
the mid Missouri Valley. Strong to potentially severe storms may
still develop in association with the trough, but the forecast
position of the warm sector relative to the trough introduces
uncertainty into the forecast.

...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
western U.S., as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the
central U.S. It appears that a moist and unstable airmass will be
located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley,
where isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible
each day. However, model spread is large concerning the timing of
shortwave features and the positioning of instability. For this
reason, uncertainty is considerable for Monday and Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 06/11/2024