702
FXUS63 KDDC 231942
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
242 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures through the end of the work week will be near or
  below the seasonal normals for this time of year. Chance for
  highs to be >80 degrees from Tuesday through Friday is 15 to
  40%. The high chances will be south and west of Dodge City.

- Slight chance for sprinkles or light rain showers early
  Tuesday. Rainfall will be light with less than a 10% chance of
  rainfall amounts exceeding 0.05" east of Highway 183.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Short term ensembles are in good agreement, with a -16C 500mb
upper level trough located over Montana at 12z Monday, moving
southeast across the Central and Northern Plains through
Tuesday. As the upper trough passes, cooler air will filter into
Kansas behind a surface cold front. This reinforcement of
cooler air will keep temperatures unseasonably cool through
midweek, with highs mainly in the 70s and overnight lows in the
upper 40s to around 50. Any chance of warmer temperatures will
return later in the week as an upper level ridge builds across
the Rockies.

The timing of the any late week warm up remains uncertain
(20-40% confidence with warmer temperatures) due to differing
ensemble cluster solutions regarding the development and track
of an upper low over the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. This
will affect how the improving downslope flow across eastern
Colorado interacts with the cooler easterly winds across western
Kansas. The cooler air advecting into western Kansas late in
the week, forecast by up to half of the ensemble clusters, could
easily delay any potential warmup. The good news is that even
with this uncertainty on how cool/warm the ensembles clusters
are forecasting temperatures to be at this time, all of these
ensembles forecast highs near or below the seasonal normals.
Chance for highs to be >80 degrees from Tuesday through Friday
is 15 to 40%. The high chances will be south and west of Dodge
City.

Precipitation chances over the next seven days will be focused
on Tuesday and late Friday into the weekend. Early Tuesday,
there is a 15-20% chance of sprinkles or very light rain showers
as an upper trough crosses the Central Plains, with less than a
10% chance of amounts exceeding 0.05" east of Highway 183. Dry
conditions can be expected through late week, with the next
chance of precipitation occurring late Friday and/or Saturday,
as moisture wraps around an upper low that will develop and
slowly move from the Lower Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio
Valley. Precipitation probabilities for areas east of Highway
283 remain low (<20% from only 26% of ensemble clusters), while
areas near and east of Highway 183 have a 30-40% chance from
50-60% of the ensemble clusters as multiple waves rotate around
this upper low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

BUFR soundings and short term ensembles are in good agreement,
indicating a period of ceilings between 6000 and 12000 ft AGL
ahead of an upper level trough crossing Kansas late tonight into
early Tuesday. Although precipitation is not expected, some
scattered sprinkles or very light showers cant be completely
ruled out, though the chance is low (<20%), so no precipitation
will be included in the 18z TAFs. Along with increasing clouds
late tonight, a surface boundary will cross southwest Kansas
between 09z and 18z Tuesday. Light winds today and early tonight
will shift to the north at 10 to 20 knots as the surface
boundary passes.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert