007
FXUS63 KDDC 310810
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
310 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible each day though
  the weekend period.

- Hail up to 1 inch, wind gusts up to 60 mph and locally heavy
  rainfall possible this evening and Saturday, mainly west of
  highway 83.

- There is greater than a 65 percent chance that the highs today
  will be less than 82 degrees. This looks like it will be the
  coolest day next week.

- The extended period of rainfall chances will end early next
  week with highs in the 90s returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Thunderstorms weakening across southwest Kansas as of 2 AM this
morning and are expected to end by early Friday morning as the
enhanced lift from the right entrance region of the upper level
jet moves northeast toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. As
these storms taper off, skies will clear as a surface
boundary/cold front becomes stationary from southeast Colorado
into northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon. North of this
boundary, short term models are in good agreement, showing a
2-3C cooldown in the boundary layer and 850 mb temperatures.
Given this and the latest guidance, it appears that most
locations across southwest Kansas will struggle to warm much
higher than 82 degrees today, even with full sun. There is a
+65% chance for highs today to be below 82 degrees across all of
southwest Kansas. Enjoy today if you can, as it will be the
coolest of the next 10 days.

The surface boundary mentioned above will become stationary
over eastern Colorado by late day and then will remain in place
through the end of the weekend period. The combination of low
level forcing developing along this boundary each day plus
afternoon heating will likely produce some late day
thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. This is especially true
if any subtle upper wave embedded in the westerly flow move out
of the Rockies and into the West central High Plains during the
same time period. For this evening and Saturday evening the 03Z
SREF highlights mainly eastern Colorado as the area where 0-6
km shear and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates will be most favorable
for severe thunderstorm. Similar to the past few days, the main
hazards from any storm that does develop will be strong gusty
winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. As these strong to
severe thunderstorms move into far southwest Kansas by evening,
they are expected to weaken due to the loss of daytime heating.
However, a few stronger storms may still be capable of
persisting for several hours after sunset, especially west of
Highway 83.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The extended period of rainfall chances over the weekend will
end early next week as warmer mid level temperatures spread
east into western Kansas, and an upper level ridge builds into
the Rockies and western High Plains. Ensemble clusters are in
generally good agreement with this trend and the largest
discrepancy early next week is how warm it will get. It really
doesn`t matter which solution you prefer next week because it
will feel like summer as temperatures climb into the 90s, with
the afternoon heat index reaching the upper 90s in some areas.
There will be a cold frontal passage mid week which will briefly
stall out the warmup but what cool air that does return
Wednesday will quickly erode by Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage near a mid
level baroclinic zone/700mb deformation zone that extended from
near Garden City and Dodge City through 09Z this Friday
morning. These storms will then slowly move east through the
predawn hours. BUFR soundings and guidance suggest ceilings will
remain in the 3000 to 8000 ft AGL range overnight. However,
these low VFR ceilings may briefly drop to 1000 to 2000 ft AGL
between 10Z and 14Z Friday, mainly around Dodge City and Hays.
The latest ceiling probabilities indicate a 30-60% chance of
this occurring. After 14Z the ceilings will gradually improve as
southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots develop by 18Z. Another round
of thunderstorms is expected tonight, moving from eastern
Colorado into southwest Kansas. The latest CAMS has these storms
approaching the Garden City and Liberal areas after 03Z
Saturday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert