Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
812 FXUS63 KDDC 142300 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 600 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There are chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through Wednesday night. - There is a marginal risk of severe storms tonight, with hail up to quarter size and 60 mph gusts. - A few severe thunderstorms are possible along the Oklahoma state line Wednesday afternoon and evening, with hail to golf ball size. - The warmest day so far this spring is expected Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A weak surface front over west central Kansas will be the focus for evening t-storms. Instability is limited, so the storms will only reach marginal severity, if severe at all, with strong wind gusts to 60 mph and small hail. A 35 kt low level jet will help keep the storms going overnight even with the loss of daytime heating, with a propagation to the east and southeast. Expect the storms to slowly wind down over central Kansas around sunrise or just after. The best chance of storms is along and northeast of a line from Syracuse to Dodge City to Medicine Lodge. An upper level disturbance will approach the high plains Wednesday. An associated cool front will move southward through Hays, Garden City and Liberal through mid-day. Post frontal upslope flow along the Raton Mesa in northeast New Mexico will be the focus for afternoon t-storm development, with the mid levels steering flow directing a storm cluster eastward along the Oklahoma state line and southward from there. These storms could be marginally severe with hail to quarter size and wind gusts to 60 mph; but it is difficult to say whether Elkhart and Liberal will be impacted or whether the cells will stay south in Oklahoma. Out ahead of this storm cluster, more isolated storms are possible over south central Kansas near an effective frontal boundary, with hail as large as golf balls. How far north these storms develop is still in question and this will depend on the exact location of the effective front or outflow boundary. This boundary may or may not end up being south of the border in Oklahoma. Instability will be a lot weaker farther north across the remainder of southwest Kansas due to north winds and cooler temperatures. Some thunderstorms could move into southwest Kansas from the Palmer Divide region of Colorado Wednesday evening and night, but will probably weaken in the process or possibly complete die off before impacting Kansas. probabilistically, the various ensemble means only indicate 30-50% chances for .5" or more of rain across the southern tier of counties in central and southwest Kansas through Wednesday night, with lower chances to the north. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Drier weather can be expected starting Thursday and persisting through at least Sunday as weak upper level ridging over the Rockies slowly progresses eastward. The warmest temperatures of the year are forecast for Saturday. Just how warm it gets depends on the speed of a weak cold front due to arrive during the day. There may be a narrow zone of downslope flow and heat right ahead of the front where mid 90s are possible for locations along the Oklahoma state line. But if the front is faster than currently depicted by the various model ensemble means, then highs would only be in the mid 80s (I-70) to lower 90s( Oklahoma state line). Given that any upper level troughing will be over the northern plains, thunderstorms are not expected along this front. Upper level troughing is advertised to develop across the western United States by early next week, resulting in lee troughing and a return of rich low level moisture into central Kansas. However, until sufficient forcing mechanisms for ascent arrive over the plains, any instability that develops across the plains will not be realized in the form of thunderstorms, but rather the low level moisture would be trapped beneath a mid level "lid" or capping inversion. Very warm to hot weather will likely return for Monday. The earliest chance of thunderstorms is Monday when the upper level troughing edges closer to the plains. However, even if t-storms occur, the precipitation would be isolated to scattered as opposed to a general rain. Probabilistically, The various ensemble means only indicate 10% chances or less of .5" or more of rain early next week. Temperatures could soar into the upper 90s Monday across southwest Kansas, which slightly cooler but humid conditions farther east in central Kansas. It is too early to speculate about isolated t-storm chances; but needless to say, given the extreme instability that could be in place over central Kansas, if isolated storms develop they would be severe. Next week we will be entering the stormiest time of year climatologically for central and southwest Kansas, with the last ten days of May being the peak of the high-end severe weather season. In some years this peak can extend well into June. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Radar and satellite observations show scattered weak thunderstorms have entered western KS, tracking east-southeast. Latest CAMs suggest this activity may increase in coverage, and potentially impact DDC, GCK, and HYS during the 01-09Z Wednesday time frame. Low spatial confidence only supported VCTS in the TAFs, however any terminal impact may bring MVFR/IFR cigs and vis. Otherwise, gusty southeast winds will gradually weaken over the next few hours, becoming light and variable by around 06Z Wednesday. Winds will tick back up to aoa 12 kts out of the north late Wednesday morning at GCK and LBL. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Springer