646
FXUS63 KDDC 211600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot afternoons and warm overnights will continue over the next
  week.

- The heat wave will peak Monday and Tuesday, with widespread
  triple digit afternoon temperatures expected.

- Heat advisories are expected to be required south and east of
  Dodge City.

- Southwest Kansas will remain mostly dry over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A warm and breezy forecast is expected today. The lee trough
across eastern Colorado will deepen through the day. The net
result is breezy SSE to SSW winds in the 22 to 33 mph range.
Highs today should peak in the upper 80s to around 90F. Lower
90s cannot be ruled out across the lower terrain of Barber
county. No storms are expected today as there will be no major
UL waves passing across the greater region. The elevated
southerly winds will continue Saturday morning as a LLJ develops
through the overnight period. This supports quite warm lows
with values in the lower to mid 70s. The warmest lows are
expected across the eastern zones. For Saturday, a 500 hPa ridge
starts to build over the region. This supports the forecast of
even hotter highs with values in the 90s. EPS has 90% to 100%
probabilities of highs > 90F Saturday. Lows Sunday morning will
be near normal with values in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This
ridge will continue Sunday as well, with a continued hot
forecast. The upcoming business week looks hot with a ridge
building over the greater region. 500 hPa heights look to peak
into the 594 dm to 596 dm range. Highs in the lower 100s looks
likely for southwest Kansas. Will have to watch out across the
far eastern zones possibly Monday and likely Tuesday as the
combination of the heat and humidity could require heat
headlines across south central Kansas these days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle, with varying amounts
of mid/high clouds. S/SW winds will be strong at all airports
through 00z Sat, gusting 32-38 kts, with the strongest winds
expected at GCK. South winds will remain elevated and gusty
overnight through 12z Fri. Winds are expected to veer westerly
than northerly through Saturday, at reduced speeds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner