965
FXUS63 KDDC 260921
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
421 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front passage early this morning leading to pull back in
  temperature and a breezy northeast wind 15 to 25 mph.

- First of several nights of thunderstorm systems tonight as a
  system is likely to develop across eastern Colorado and thrive
  through the overnight hours -- favoring mainly along/north of
  Highway 50.

- Thursday late afternoon/evening likely the best chance for
  organized severe thunderstorms with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of
  5) across much of our southwest Kansas region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms, including a few sizable mesoscale
convective systems, will be the theme much of the forecast period
tonight through the end of the weekend. It all begins thanks to a
cold frontal passage this morning. Said cold front was approaching
west central Kansas at 08Z (3 AM CDT), which will be felt by an
increase in northeast winds this morning. The front will clear the
entire forecast area, including the Red Hills of southern Comanche-
Barber County, by midday. Winds will remain northeast, gradually
becoming east by late afternoon into the evening.

Initial thunderstorm development will occur along the frontal zone
around the Raton-Black Mesa region just southwest of our forecast
area. HREF convective mean/probability fields show strong signal of
this initial development with HREF 40+ dBZ Composite Reflectivity
25km neighborhood probabilities (MCS Proxy) exceeding 40% late
afternoon through early evening across far northeastern NM into the
western Oklahoma Panhandle. This signal diminishes in the HREF later
in the evening, likely due to SBCAPE diminishing after sunset
downstream of this region.

The focus will then shift northwest toward east-central Colorado as
the main MCS signal in the HREF develops. Mean cloud-bearing winds
favor an east-southeast track of late night MCS across west-central
and southwest KS through the night. Interestingly, the
aforementioned MCS Proxy field shows an expanding 40% area overnight
(around 09Z), so there is rather high confidence in an MCS thriving
all the way to sunrise as a prospective MCS approaches another surge
in low level moisture (dewpoints upper 60s to lower 70s advecting
west into western KS).

Early Thursday morning, an MCS will most likely be pushing east of
our forecast area into central/south central Kansas, but abundant
low level moisture will be in place in the wake of the MCS. HREF
means show a good SBCAPE signal developing as temperatures warm into
the 80s to the south of where remnant stratus clouds will likely
exist. A more aggressive stratus cloud forecast, using 75th
percentile data, would suggest broken-overcast stratus hanging on
through early afternoon north of roughly Dighton to La Crosse line.
This would likely set up a low level frontogenetic zone which could
enhance severe risk in a smaller mesoscale region within SPC`s
latest SWODY2 Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) region.

Going forward Thursday and beyond using latest 00Z 100-member
Grand Ensemble 6hr QPF > 0.10" probabilities, track of Thursday
through Friday morning favors west central KS through north central
KS and beyond into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This is a fairly
strong signal in the 100-member Grand Ensemble. This MCS would
likely leave a formidable outflow boundary/front in its wake with
Grand Ensemble mean 10-meter winds showing northerly component winds
down into the western half of Kansas on Friday. This latest global
ensemble signal would favor cooler temperatures than what our latest
official forecast calls for (which is currently upper 90s/lower
100s), so look for possible downward trend in Friday temps. There
isn`t a real strong MCS signal Friday/Friday Night across
western/southwestern Kansas, so a break in the action on Friday
evening is quite possible. However, a MCS signal returns late
Saturday/Saturday Night as mean 10-meter winds in the latest Grand
Ensemble suggests increasing easterly upslope component with SBCAPE
axis focused across the southern third of Kansas into southeastern
Colorado. This pattern could favor a rather sizable MCS late
Saturday evening/night across the southern half of our DDC forecast
area down into the Texas panhandle/northern Oklahoma.

Toward the end of the 7-day forecast period, global models/ensemble
systems favor a strong system moving east across the northern Great
Plains, which would argue for at least one real hot day in the
downslope southwesterly flow early next week before another cold
front comes down around July 2-3 time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Light winds and VFR flight category will continue through the
night ahead of a cold front. Cold front passage around/shortly
after sunrise Wednesday will result in an increase in northeast
winds 15 to 20 knots sustained. Northeast winds of this
magnitude will likely persist for a 3 to 5 hour period with
winds gradually decreasing through the afternoon. Thunderstorms
will likely move east across far western Kansas late in this TAF
period Wednesday evening, but we will not include in this 06Z
synoptic TAF set.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid