696
FXUS63 KDDC 151520
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect hot afternoons with strong south winds each day,
  Saturday through Tuesday.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and
  evening, with marginally severe wind and/or hail possible.

- A cold front is expected to bring cooler afternoons and
  increased shower and thunderstorm coverage at midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The overnight water vapor loop and RAP analysis overlay
revealed a mid-tropospheric shortwave trough centered over far
eastern Colorado. This small shortwave trough was within a
larger scale, broad ridge axis centered across the north central
CONUS. A mesoscale convective system (MCS) tied to this
disturbance was over far eastern Nebraska into north central
Kansas, continuing to move away from our southwest Kansas
region.

Several convection-allowing models are showing weak
redevelopment of showers/isolated thunderstorms around daybreak
or shortly thereafter, seemingly tied to broad, rather weak
convergence/deformation of the flow field around 700mb. We
pulled back a bit on the morning POPs, limiting them to 20
percent. Not too long after sunrise, south to southwest winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph as the MSLP gradient tightens east
of a southwest to northeast oriented leeside trough. Later in
the day, there will likely be enough low level convergence along
this trough axis to initiate surface-based convection. The
remnants of last night`s shortwave trough will be around,
however jet streak dynamics and very weak thermal advections in
the lower troposphere will limit coverage and intensity of
thunderstorm activity later in the afternoon, thus the reason
the latest SWODY1 outlook from SPC keeps our forecast area in a
Marginal (1 of 5) Risk. Since the forecast coverage will be more
isolated/widely scattered in nature, there will be enough of a
CAPE/Shear combination to support at least a marginal supercell
or two capable of large hail, but the probability of any
significant severe reports is extremely low.

On Sunday, the larger scale pattern will transition to one of
broad southwest flow aloft as a large cyclonically-curved jet
enters the Pacific Northwest region. This pattern will favor
deep leeside troughing and a tight pressure gradient across much
of the Great Plains, including southwest Kansas. The result
will be wind, wind, and more wind. Sunday and Monday both are
forecast to be windy to very windy with sustained south to
southwest winds 20 to 35 mph gusting to 45 mph at times,
particularly in the afternoon. Neither of these days will be
favored for any thunderstorm activity, so the forecast will
remain dry. We will be heating back up again, though, with
afternoon highs upper 90s to around 100 across the western half
of the forecast area. Dewpoint temperatures will not be that
high, so resulting Heat Index values will be at or only slightly
above the actual air temperature.

As we head deeper into the week, thunderstorm chances increase by
late Tuesday/Tuesday Night as a cold front pushes south into Kansas.
Pretty good model consensus on this front and thunderstorm
development along it has resulted in NBM POPs increasing to 30 to 45
percent for the Tuesday Night period. This front will likely stall
out near southwest Kansas Wednesday which would keep precipitation
chances in the forecast through Wednesday Night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF period, outside of any
convective impacts. Strong S/SW winds are expected at all
airports through 00z Sun, gusting 30-32 kts. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected 21z Sat - 06z Sun. Coverage will be
limited, and have low confidence of direct impacts at any
airport. As such, only included a VCTS/CB mention at DDC/HYS
from 00-03z Sun for now. South winds will diminish some at
sunset, but remain elevated through 12z Sun.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Turner