409
FXUS63 KDDC 211900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...Updated Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot afternoons and warm overnights will continue over the next
  week.

- The heat wave will peak Monday and Tuesday, with widespread
  triple digit afternoon temperatures expected.

- Heat advisories are expected to be required south and east of
  Dodge City.

- Southwest Kansas will remain mostly dry over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

South to southwest winds were already gusting 30-40 mph at
midday, and they will remain strong through evening, in response
to surface cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado. Some gusts of
40-45 mph are expected mainly NW of DDC through sunset. With a
mix of mid and high clouds, the warming trend will continue
today with most locations with a few degrees of 90 at 5 pm.
Despite continued high boundary layer moisture content, with
dewpoints in the 60s, 700 mb temperatures are quite toasty,
keeping any instability capped, and there are no convective
triggering mechanisms available anyway. A dry forecast is in
place through tonight. Elevated south/southwest winds, some
boundary layer downslope, and areas of cirrus will all work
together against radiational cooling tonight through sunrise
Saturday, with most locations remaining above 70 through
sunrise.

The warming trend will continue Saturday, with all models adding
about another 5C at 850 mb. Winds will also be much reduced,
with a much weaker pressure gradient. What wind remains will
maintain a westerly downsloping component much of the day, which
will enhance the warmup. As a surface trough sags southward,
light winds will trend light northerly by late Saturday
afternoon. Despite this trend, afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s will be common. Where dewpoints can remain in the mid to
upper 60s southeast of Dodge City, apparent temperature/heat
index grids increase the heat index to 104-107 for several hours
Saturday afternoon. A heat advisory is expected to be required
at least for Barber county, and will pass this along for the
night shift to consider.

Models show little change in the lower level thermal structure
Sunday, as winds trend light SEly, with more mid 90s during the
afternoon. With these light SEly winds maintaining moisture and
instability, isolated thunderstorms are possible late Sunday. On
the northeast periphery of a building midlevel high over Far
West Texas/southern New Mexico, a weak shortwave embedded in the
flow from the Rockies may help to get a late day thunderstorm
initiated. The odds of measurable rain at any one location are
very low, thus pop grids remain dry (< 15%).

All models agree the hot midlevel high will strengthen early
next week, Monday through Wednesday, spreading increasing
heights over SW KS. Model consensus suggests a peak intensity
near 598 dm over New Mexico Wednesday. Triple digit afternoon
heat will be common early next week. 12z GEFS ensemble members
give a 90% probability of 2m T > 100 Monday, and near 100%
probability of temperatures over 100 for all of SW KS Tuesday.
NBM maximum temperatures are in the 100-104 range during this
heat wave peak, and strenuous outdoor activities will become
dangerous especially east of Dodge City, each afternoon and
early evening, where heat advisories are expected to be
required. Rain chances Monday and Tuesday during the heatwave
are very low, but not zero, as the core of the upper high will
be southwest of SW KS and subsidence will not be overwhelming.
In the super heated afternoon atmosphere, and with dewpoints in
the 60s, some isolated thunderstorms are probable, but the odds
of meaurable rain at any one locations are slight (<25%).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle, with varying amounts
of mid/high clouds. S/SW winds will be strong at all airports
through 00z Sat, gusting 32-38 kts, with the strongest winds
expected at GCK. South winds will remain elevated and gusty
overnight through 12z Fri. Winds are expected to veer westerly
than northerly through Saturday, at reduced speeds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner