369
FXUS63 KDDC 220939
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
439 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue across the
  southeast half of the area through mid morning.

- Cloudy and much cooler with a few showers in the afternoon.

- Slight chances for precipitation returns around Monday
  overnight and Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024


The last of the more organized shower and thunderstorm bands is
overspreading the area at this time. Isolated areas of 1-3
in/hr rainfall rates ares evident in the MRMS data, however the
rain is reasonably progressing eastward. Some runoff and ponding
of water may be found this morning across the southeast
counties, particularly from Ashland to Pratt and Medicine Lodge,
as the rains move over areas that already received between
about one and two inches last evening.

An upper low will lift from Colorado to around the Nebraska and
Kansas state line Today, while attendant mid to upper jet
stretching from northeast NM across the DDC area and into
eastern NE this morning, becomes positioned from the Panhandles
into northern MO by late Today  leaving a subsident shortwave
ridge over western Kansas by this evening. As the rains end
Today, cloudy and cool conditions will be leftover, as well as light
winds. The deterministic models show and transient 1019 hPa
surface anticyclone moving from eastern CO Today, into an
elongated surface ridge over eastern Kansas by Monday.

Some potential for dynamic lift resulting in showers is
possible Monday and Monday night/early Tuesday as the nose of
the northern stream jet pushes across the northern and central
High Plains  shown in the deterministic Canadian/EC/GFS. With
respect to this, the GFS/EC ensemble means are relatively dry,
but so show some potential for minimal 24 hour QPF totals over
any period in the coming days which still leaves low confidence
for any appreciable precipitation in the short to medium range.
Beyond Tuesday, the synoptic pattern shifts to slowly eastward
propagating amplified ridge from the desert southwest into the
northern High Plains. Alot of uncertainty in the latter half of
the week right now revolves around the possibility of a deep
cutoff low developing somewhere in the Mississippi valley area
or even farther west. Deterministic Global models are
inconsistent with respect to the low level thermal fields over
western Kansas Wednesday -Friday with outcomes ranging from 14
to 23 deg C for 850 temps over western Kansas  resulting from
surface wind trajectories and clouds cover. The NBM input 25th
to 75th percentile highs on these days vary from highs around 70
degrees in the cooler solutions to low 80s on the warmer
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 437 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Rain exiting from west to east this morning with ceilings
averaging between 2000 and 3000 ft this morning in the wake of
lower IFR/MVFR ceilings rain. Anticipate improvement to VFR
category ceilings later in the morning. As high pressure builds
into the area from the west, winds will be northerly and light.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell