Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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888 FXUS63 KDDC 222043 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 343 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry weather can be expected over the next week to ten days, with only small chances for light rain over central Kansas by Friday into early Saturday. - Cool nights are forecast through Monday night, but high temperatures will warm well into the 70s over the next few days as sunshine returns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The upper level system responsible for the rain overnight will progress eastward, with weak surface high pressure settling across the high plains. Lows tonight will be cool, with lower 40s over far western Kansas in the drier air, and mid to upper 40s in central Kansas. But with the return of sunshine, expect highs to rebound into the lower 70s Monday. How cool it gets Monday night with the change to a south wind depends on exact wind speeds. A stronger south wind towards daybreak would cause temperatures to stay near 50 instead of bottoming out in the 40s. After this system exits well to the east, the main large scale feature over the next week will be an upper level system that digs southeastward out of Canada into the Midwest Tuesday and closes off over Missouri or Arkansas by Friday. The only chance of rain, albeit small, is if moisture wraps around the system and approaches central Kansas from the east by late week. The GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means indicate 30-60% chances of measurable rainfall (.01" or greater) across central Kansas (Pratt to Stafford) in the Friday morning to Saturday morning time frame, with ensemble mean rain amounts of around .1". The CMCE ensemble mean is farther east with the upper low and shows mainly a dry solution for central and southwest Kansas. However, even if the farther west solution is correct, rain amounts would be light. High temperatures will rebound well into the 70s this week; but given the presence of the upper low to the east and resultant easterly to northeasterly wind circulation around this feature into western Kansas, hot weather is not expected to return. Temperatures will be a little cooler Friday and Saturday over central Kansas (low to mid 70s) than father west (upper 70s) due to the closer proximity to the upper low and possible cloud cover. As the effects of this upper level system lessen by next weekend, high temperatures will probably rebound into the lower 80s by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Weak surface high pressure will build across the high plains this evening and tonight. This will result in decreasing winds and drier air, with increasing CIGS to VFR between 21 and 02z. North winds at 15 kts will weaken to below 10 kts this evening as the pressure gradient weakens. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Finch