072
FXUS63 KDDC 230424
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1124 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather can be expected over the next week to ten
  days, with only small chances for light rain over central
  Kansas by Friday into early Saturday.

- Cool nights are forecast through Monday night, but high
  temperatures will warm well into the 70s over the next few
  days as sunshine returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The upper level system responsible for the rain overnight will
progress eastward, with weak surface high pressure settling
across the high plains. Lows tonight will be cool, with lower
40s over far western Kansas in the drier air, and mid to upper
40s in central Kansas. But with the return of sunshine, expect
highs to rebound into the lower 70s Monday. How cool it gets
Monday night with the change to a south wind depends on exact
wind speeds. A stronger south wind towards daybreak would cause
temperatures to stay near 50 instead of bottoming out in the
40s. After this system exits well to the east, the main large
scale feature over the next week will be an upper level system
that digs southeastward out of Canada into the Midwest Tuesday
and closes off over Missouri or Arkansas by Friday. The only
chance of rain, albeit small, is if moisture wraps around the
system and approaches central Kansas from the east by late week.
The GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means indicate 30-60% chances of
measurable rainfall (.01" or greater) across central Kansas
(Pratt to Stafford) in the Friday morning to Saturday morning
time frame, with ensemble mean rain amounts of around .1". The
CMCE ensemble mean is farther east with the upper low and shows
mainly a dry solution for central and southwest Kansas. However,
even if the farther west solution is correct, rain amounts
would be light. High temperatures will rebound well into the 70s
this week; but given the presence of the upper low to the east
and resultant easterly to northeasterly wind circulation around
this feature into western Kansas, hot weather is not expected
to return. Temperatures will be a little cooler Friday and
Saturday over central Kansas (low to mid 70s) than farther west
(upper 70s) due to the closer proximity to the upper low and
possible cloud cover. As the effects of this upper level system
lessen by next weekend, high temperatures will probably rebound
into the lower 80s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024


Increasingly clearing sky overnight into Monday with light
variable winds overnight, turning more out of the south area-
wide during the daytime. VFR category is of high confidence.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Russell