Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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009 FXUS63 KDDC 092000 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The coolest temperatures over the next 7 days will be Monday and Tuesday. As a result the start of the work week will be pleasant for outdoor plans. - Confidence is improving (70%) for highs late week to be around 100 degrees. Heat index reading of 100 to 105 possible, especially on Thursday. - The chance for thunderstorms return next weekend (30-50% chance). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Ensembles today are in good agreement with a cool dome of high pressure building across the Central Plains over the next 24 hours. This cool and drier air will result in a nice start to the upcoming work week. If you have any outdoor plans, this is the time to get them done because summer temperatures will be returning mid to late week. For Monday and Tuesday, we will stay close to the latest guidance. Given the small spread (<5F) in guidance for these days, this leads to higher than normal confidence in the forecast early in the workweek. Also, with the recent rains, we may not see as quick of a warm-up as we saw last week, given that much of the heating will go into evapotranspiration. This recent rainfall will also add to the humidity, which will yield higher heat index values. This will be noticeable over the next couple of days but may play an important role later in the week as temperatures rebound back into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Although most of southwest Kansas will be rain free...for extreme southwest Kansas (near the Oklahoma border and west of Liberal), we will be monitoring the chance for a few showers late Tonight and early Monday. The best chance for rain on Monday will stay south the Oklahoma border, where better moisture and lift will be located north of a surface boundary that will be located over the Panhandle of Texas. On Tuesday an upper level trough embedded in northerly flow will cross the Central Plains bringing improving mid level moisture and lift. This will result in increasing clouds and a slight chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms, This further supports in keeping temperatures on the cool side Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The main item of interest in the upcoming work week is the warm up expected mid to late week as an upper level ridge strengthens and builds east across the Rockies and into the western high plains. As this upper ridge begins to approach from the west during the work week the 850mb temperatures will warm through the 20s, and during the last half of the work week, all the mean ensemble 850mb temperatures ranged from the upper 20s to around 30C at 7 PM each evening (Wednesday evening through Friday evening). The warmest 850mb temperatures are forecast for Thursday, and this time frame also shows run-to-run consistency based on the past 4 ensemble runs. Additionally, it is interesting to note that the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, ending at 00Z Friday, is now showing values of 0.5 to 0.6. Although not a very strong signal for an extreme event, the increasing trend in these numbers over the past few days suggests that as we head towards the end of the work week, we might want to trend towards the warmer, 75th percentile in guidance. Another indicator that temperatures will be on the warmer side is that there is now a 70% chance that high temperatures across parts of southwest Kansas will be at or above 100 degrees. Now recall earlier about rainfall and possible humidity issues that will be present across southwest Kansas this upcoming work week, taking this into account, there is the potential for heat index values to range from 100 to 105. Now is the time to prepare for these hot temperatures. As we head into next weekend we will start monitoring our next upper level trough as it crosses the southwest United States. The hot air over southwest Kansas will shift eastward, and as this next upper trough approaches southwest Kansas, several days of late day/overnight thunderstorms will return. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 BUFR soundings and the latest short term models are in good agreement that the low clouds, ceilings below 2000ft AGL, at 18z today will slowly erode early tonight at Dodge City, Garden City, and Hays. In Liberal, it looks like moisture and lift occurring north of a surface boundary will result in some lingering MVFR ceiling conditions through Monday. Currently, the latest short-term models have ceilings in the Liberal area ranging from 2,000 ft AGL to 3,500 ft AGL. The chance for ceilings to be below 3,000 ft is 20% to 40% after 21Z Today. East to northeast winds at 10 to 15 knots this Sunday afternoon will decrease to less than 10 knots and become southeast by 12Z Monday as an area of high pressure builds into western Kansas overnight. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert