548
FXUS63 KDDC 301043
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
543 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms capable of producing 1 to 2" hail, wind gusts
  up to 60 mph along with locally heavy rainfall can be expected
  across Southeast Kansas this afternoon and early Tonight.

- There will be a chance for thunderstorms just about each night
  from Friday night through Sunday night. It currently looks
  like the best chance for widespread rainfall will occur
  Saturday night.

- Warmer temperatures will be returning to southwest Kansas
  early next week. Heat index values in the upper 90s possible
  for some locations, mainly south and east of Dodge City.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Ensembles this morning are in good agreement with an upper
level trough crossing the Northern Plains today, bringing cooler
500mb temperatures to eastern Colorado and western Kansas which
will be located near and southeast of the base of this trough
today. As 500mb temperatures cool, a surface cold front will
move into eastern Colorado/western Kansas by midday, where it
will briefly stall as 850-700mb moisture and frontogenesis
improve. A dryline is expected to extend south of this cold
front into western Texas during the afternoon/early evening.
Given these conditions, it appears likely (+60%) that
thunderstorms will return to western Kansas during the
afternoon, especially near the surface boundary where better
cooling aloft and 850-700mb moisture will be present.

700mb-500mb lapse rates in this area have a +70% chance to be
>8C/km. 0-6km shear will be improving, but at this time, SREF
has less than a 20% chance for this to be >40 knots and a 50-70%
chance for the 0-6km shear to be >30 knots with the shear and
instability forecast along and east of the dryline during the
afternoon and evening. Given this it appears that SPC`s
assessment this morning for the best chances for severe weather
will be mainly west of Highway 83 and near the Oklahoma border.
This is also where the dryline is forecast to be located.
Further north, I cannot rule out hail and gusty winds, but these
are not expected to be as large as what the storms will be
capable of producing farther southwest, near the Oklahoma
Panhandle. Locally heavy rainfall across southwest Kansas will
also be an issue given the high precipitable water values (>1),
shear <35 knots and veering, 850mb moisture/warm air advection
along with improving 850-700mb moisture transport and weak to no
850-700mb CIN. Confidence is further enhanced with the locally
heavy rain potential given a +0.7 ECMWF EFI and a positive shift
of Tails.

These thunderstorms will move southeast tonight into early
Friday as the cold front moves into central Kansas, northwest
Oklahoma and southeast Colorado as an upper level trough crosses
the northern Plains. This will briefly bring an end to the rain
chances on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A dry start to later periods expected but how long with this
break in precipitation last? The duration of this break in the
rain late week into the weekend depends on the timing of our
next upper wave embedded in the westerly flow across the Central
Rockies and West Central High Plains. As this upper wave or any
upper wave after this on exits the Rockies and moves out into
the Plains over the weekend or even early next week, there will
be a chance for thunderstorms given late day instability near
and east of a surface boundary over eastern Colorado and a moist
upslope flow north of this boundary.  The exact timing and
location of these storms in southwest Kansas remain uncertain
due to the dependence on the surface boundary`s position,
influenced by the previous night`s precipitation and the mid level
baroclinic zones location. If the models are accurate, the best
chances for widespread rainfall across southwest Kansas will be
Saturday night and possibly Sunday night.

After this, warming mid level temperatures will shift the
favorable track of storms northward towards the Nebraska border.
Mean 700mb temperatures from the ensembles will range from 10
to 15C early next week, which will not only favor temperatures
climbing back into the 90s but also limit the chance for
convection in southwest Kansas. Given the recent rainfall
however, the warm-up will not be as dramatic as it could have
been, as much of the heating will go into evapotranspiration.
This would keep temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
longer, but the humidity will make it feel warmer in locations
where the heavier rainfall has occurred or will occur. Could see
some locations experience heat index values in the upper 90s
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Short term models are in good agreement that a cluster of
thunderstorms over southwest Kansas at 10z will weaken and move
into south central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma between 12Z
and 15Z today. As thunderstorms taper off, skies will clear from
west to east. After 4 to 6 hours of sunshine, the atmosphere
will become increasingly unstable, leading to cloud development
and eventual thunderstorms, mainly after 21Z, along a cold front
and dry line located near and west of Garden City and Liberal.
Thunderstorm coverage will then increase and spread east
southeast through the early evening, with ceilings in the
3000-5000 ft AGL range.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert