Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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779 FXUS63 KDDC 121932 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 232 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat index reading around 105 can be expected along and east of highway 281 Thursday afternoon. A heat advisory is now in effect for these locations. - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday and again on Friday. Main hazards will be wind gusts of 60 mph or higher and hail. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A 500mb high will develop over Arizona over the next 36 hours as an upper-level low off the coast of Baja California moves northeast towards southern California. At 18z today, a weak surface cold front is moving east across northeast Colorado towards northeast Kansas, with a surface trough of low pressure extending south of this frontal boundary across extreme eastern Colorado. By late day, these surface boundaries will reach the Colorado/Kansas border, where some high based clouds will be possible. While thunderstorm chances appear small, a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out near the Colorado border. This location is favored by short term models due to weaker CIN, better moisture, and mid- level instability. The weak flow and inverted V forecast soundings suggest that any storms that develop may produce gusty winds and are not expected to move far east into west central Kansas. Given how isolated these storms are expected to be late today/evening will keep any chance for storms at 15% or less. A similar setup will be present on Thursday. A surface boundary will be located near or in far west/northwest Kansas, with the latest short term model soundings showing an inverted V profile late day along with weak winds. This time however it looks like a weak upper wave will be rotating around the developing 500mb high as it moves into the Rockies. Ahead of this subtle upper wave, improved forcing and mid level instability suggest a better chance for a few late-day/evening thunderstorms near this boundary. What storms that do develop late Thusday will move southeast along an instability/moisture axis as the cold front moves into southwest Kansas. Consequently, any convection that develops will have a better chance of lingering through early tonight. Isolated strong gusty winds will be the main hazard, given the forecast soundings, 700-500mb dewpoint depressions between 7 and 15C, and forecast downdraft CAPE values. Highs around 100 degrees for southwest Kansas still look on track for Thursday given the ongoing agreement with the ensembles and deterministic models on the 850mb and 700mb temperatures late day. In addition to this the latest guidance spread is 5F or less, suggesting high confidence in the temperature forecast. Given these highs combined with the forecast dewpoints, heat index values around 105F are expected for several hours in Barber County and locations east of Highway 281 in Pratt and Stafford Counties. Therefore, a heat advisory will be issued for these locations on Thursday. Areas close to heat advisory criteria include portions of Clark and Comanche counties but after good collaboration with our neighboring offices, we have agreed to hold off on issuing an advisory for these areas at this time. These areas is also where the new NWS HeatRisk has identified an area of major heat risk. For these locations, this type of heat represents a major risk to all individuals who are 1) exposed to the sun and active or 2) in a heat-sensitive group. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 It will be another hot day on Friday with highs around 100F. Heat index values are not forecast to be as high as those expected on Thursday. However, with this being the second consecutive day of highs around 100F and overnight lows around 70F across south central Kansas, another area of Major HeatRisk is expected for Pratt, Barber, and portions of Stafford counties. At this time, a heat advisory is not anticipated. However, given the Major HeatRisk forecast along and east of Highway 281, those in these locations should consider limiting afternoon activities and remember to stay hydrated. On Friday, we will also be monitoring the weakening upper low as it moves northeast from the four corners region to the Central Rockies, while the upper ridge shifts east towards the eastern half of Kansas. As this more significant upper level system approaches, a trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen across eastern Colorado. Increasing south southeast flow ahead of this deepening surface trough will draw more humidity back into southwest Kansas and eastern Kansas. Improving moisture and lift developing along this eastern Colorado trough will result in another afternoon of scattered thunderstorms. Stronger cloud layer mean winds will be present late Friday and Friday night, along with better shear and mid level instability. As a result, these storms will be capable of producing large hail and strong damaging winds early Friday night. Agree with SPC concern about the need to monitor the potential for MCS development overnight as these storms move east-northeast into Northern Kansas. Those near the I-70 corridor should monitor this potential Friday night closely, given that several ensembles show good 850-700mb moisture transport across this region. Additionally, the presence of a 0-1km theta-e axis, mid level baroclinic zone, and a developing low-level jet indicate that Friday night storms will be capable of producing large hail, strong gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. For Sunday through the start of next week...Despite some differences in the timing and strength of this upper trough early this weekend, all ensemble clusters agree on moving this upper wave east of our county warning area by early Sunday morning. As this upper trough passes, rain chances will diminish, leading to a break in the triple-digit heat expected on Sunday and possibly even Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Gusty southwest winds at around 20 knots this Wednesday afternoon will fall back into the 10 to 15 knot range by sunset (between 00z and 03z Friday) as the boundary layer winds decouples. BUFR soundings indicating limited moisture will be present over western Kansas over the next 24 hours so VFR conditions can be expected. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert