779
FXUS63 KDDC 121932
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
232 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat index reading around 105 can be expected along and east
  of highway 281 Thursday afternoon. A heat advisory is now in
  effect for these locations.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday
  and again on Friday. Main hazards will be wind gusts of 60 mph
  or higher and hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A 500mb high will develop over Arizona over the next 36 hours
as an upper-level low off the coast of Baja California moves
northeast towards southern California. At 18z today, a weak
surface cold front is moving east across northeast Colorado
towards northeast Kansas, with a surface trough of low pressure
extending south of this frontal boundary across extreme eastern
Colorado. By late day, these surface boundaries will reach the
Colorado/Kansas border, where some high based clouds will be
possible. While thunderstorm chances appear small, a few
isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out near the Colorado
border. This location is favored by short term models due to
weaker CIN, better moisture, and mid- level instability. The
weak flow and inverted V forecast soundings suggest that any
storms that develop may produce gusty winds and are not expected
to move far east into west central Kansas. Given how isolated
these storms are expected to be late today/evening will keep any
chance for storms at 15% or less.

A similar setup will be present on Thursday. A surface boundary
will be located near or in far west/northwest Kansas, with the
latest short term model soundings showing an inverted V profile
late day along with weak winds. This time however it looks like
a weak upper wave will be rotating around the developing 500mb
high as it moves into the Rockies. Ahead of this subtle upper
wave, improved forcing and mid level instability suggest a
better chance for a few late-day/evening thunderstorms near this
boundary. What storms that do develop late Thusday will move
southeast along an instability/moisture axis as the cold front
moves into southwest Kansas. Consequently, any convection that
develops will have a better chance of lingering through early
tonight. Isolated strong gusty winds will be the main hazard,
given the forecast soundings, 700-500mb dewpoint depressions
between 7 and 15C, and forecast downdraft CAPE values.

Highs around 100 degrees for southwest Kansas still look on
track for Thursday given the ongoing agreement with the
ensembles and deterministic models on the 850mb and 700mb
temperatures late day. In addition to this the latest guidance
spread is 5F or less, suggesting high confidence in the
temperature forecast. Given these highs combined with the
forecast dewpoints, heat index values around 105F are expected
for several hours in Barber County and locations east of Highway
281 in Pratt and Stafford Counties. Therefore, a heat advisory
will be issued for these locations on Thursday. Areas close to
heat advisory criteria include portions of Clark and Comanche
counties but after good collaboration with our neighboring
offices, we have agreed to hold off on issuing an advisory for
these areas at this time. These areas is also where the new NWS
HeatRisk has identified an area of major heat risk. For these
locations, this type of heat represents a major risk to all
individuals who are 1) exposed to the sun and active or 2) in a
heat-sensitive group.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

It will be another hot day on Friday with highs around 100F.
Heat index values are not forecast to be as high as those
expected on Thursday. However, with this being the second
consecutive day of highs around 100F and overnight lows around
70F across south central Kansas, another area of Major HeatRisk
is expected for Pratt, Barber, and portions of Stafford
counties. At this time, a heat advisory is not anticipated.
However, given the Major HeatRisk forecast along and east of
Highway 281, those in these locations should consider limiting
afternoon activities and remember to stay hydrated.

On Friday, we will also be monitoring the weakening upper low
as it moves northeast from the four corners region to the
Central Rockies, while the upper ridge shifts east towards the
eastern half of Kansas. As this more significant upper level
system approaches, a trough of low pressure at the surface will
deepen across eastern Colorado. Increasing south southeast flow
ahead of this deepening surface trough will draw more humidity
back into southwest Kansas and eastern Kansas. Improving
moisture and lift developing along this eastern Colorado trough
will result in another afternoon of scattered thunderstorms.
Stronger cloud layer mean winds will be present late Friday and
Friday night, along with better shear and mid level
instability. As a result, these storms will be capable of
producing large hail and strong damaging winds early Friday
night. Agree with SPC concern about the need to monitor the
potential for MCS development overnight as these storms move
east-northeast into Northern Kansas. Those near the I-70
corridor should monitor this potential Friday night closely,
given that several ensembles show good 850-700mb moisture
transport across this region. Additionally, the presence of a
0-1km theta-e axis, mid level baroclinic zone, and a developing
low-level jet indicate that Friday night storms will be capable
of producing large hail, strong gusty winds, and heavy
rainfall.

For Sunday through the start of next week...Despite some
differences in the timing and strength of this upper trough
early this weekend, all ensemble clusters agree on moving this
upper wave east of our county warning area by early Sunday
morning. As this upper trough passes, rain chances will
diminish, leading to a break in the triple-digit heat expected
on Sunday and possibly even Monday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Gusty southwest winds at around 20 knots this Wednesday
afternoon will fall back into the 10 to 15 knot range by sunset
(between 00z and 03z Friday) as the boundary layer winds
decouples. BUFR soundings indicating limited moisture will be
present over western Kansas over the next 24 hours so VFR
conditions can be expected.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert