Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
787 FXXX12 KWNP 231231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 23 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3716 (N10W79, Eki/beta-gamma) produced an M2.4/1n flare at 23/0630 UTC; the largest event of the period. Region 3712 (S25W83, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M1.2/Sf flare at 23/1137 UTC. Regions 3712 and 3716, along with Region 3713 (S14W71, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), were seen to be in decay as they approached the W limb. New Region 3723 (S18E70, Cao/beta) was numbered and the remaining regions were stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 23-25 Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater) on 23-24 Jun. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 23-25 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 23-24 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters became enhanced after 23/0200 UTC due to possible CIR effects preceding negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 12 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward, by as much as -11 nT, between 23/0600-0900 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from a low of 300 km/s to 350-375 km/s. The phi angle was variable through the second half of the period. .Forecast... Negative polarity CH HSS influences and mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 23-24 Jun. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 25 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled due to possible CIR effects. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled and active levels on 23 Jun, and quiet to unsettled levels on 24 Jun, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 25 Jun.