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Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
952 FXXX12 KWNP 211231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 21 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3719 (S13E48, Dao/beta) produced an impulsive M5.7/1b flare at 20/2316 UTC, the largest event of the period, and exhibited minor growth. Region 3713 (S14W47, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced most of the C-class flare activity observed this period and increased in size and spot count, and maintained a complex magnetic field structure. Regions 3712 (S26W58, Ekc/beta-gamma) and 3716 (N10W51, Ekc/beta-gamma) remained largely unchanged from the previous period and both regions registered C-flares. Region 3718 (N12W06, Axx/alpha) decayed to plage late in the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery, however, no coronagraph imagery was available after 20/2230 UTC. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 21-23 Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 23 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 21-23 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... A nominal solar wind environment prevailed throughout the period. Total field ranged between 3-6 nT, the Bz component varied between +5/-3 nT, and wind speeds decreased from 475 km/s to 400 km/s. The phi angle was positive. .Forecast... Negative polarity CH HSS influences and mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 21-23 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled over 21-23 Jun, with periods of active conditions likely on 22 Jun, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.