952
FXXX12 KWNP 211231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Jun 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3719 (S13E48, Dao/beta)
produced an impulsive M5.7/1b flare at 20/2316 UTC, the largest event of
the period, and exhibited minor growth. Region 3713 (S14W47,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced most of the C-class flare activity
observed this period and increased in size and spot count, and
maintained a complex magnetic field structure. Regions 3712 (S26W58,
Ekc/beta-gamma) and 3716 (N10W51, Ekc/beta-gamma) remained largely
unchanged from the previous period and both regions registered C-flares.
Region 3718 (N12W06, Axx/alpha) decayed to plage late in the period. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery, however, no
coronagraph imagery was available after 20/2230 UTC.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 21-23 Jun, with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels through 23 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 21-23 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
A nominal solar wind environment prevailed throughout the period. Total
field ranged between 3-6 nT, the Bz component varied between +5/-3 nT,
and wind speeds decreased from 475 km/s to 400 km/s. The phi angle was
positive.

.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS influences and mildly enhanced solar wind
conditions are likely over 21-23 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled over
21-23 Jun, with periods of active conditions likely on 22 Jun, due to
negative polarity CH HSS influences.