Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
901 FXXX12 KWNP 150031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Sep 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to high levels following an X4.5/2b flare from Region 3825 (S18E48, Dac/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with this flare was a 10cm radio burst (1000 sfu), and a fast moving CME. This region exhibited growth in its intermediate and peripheral spots near the main leader, and maintained its delta magnetic configuration. The only other group that displayed growth was newly numbered Region 3826 (S28W17, Dsi/beta), though it remained mostly quiet during the period. The remaining spot groups were stable and inactive. Other notable activity included a long duration M1.0 flare from an area near several regions on, and just beyond, the southwest limb that peaked at 14/0431 UTC. Associated with this event was a CME that appeared to be directed mostly south of the ecliptic. Analysis of these CMEs indicates an Earth-directed component is likely for both. However, the first CME will likely be overcome by the second, larger CME as they make their way to Earth. The anticipated arrival time looks to be around midday on 16 Sep. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) radio blackouts on 15-17 Sep as Region 3825 makes its way towards center disk. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels with a peak flux of 740 pfu at 14/0415 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to be slightly elevated, with additional enhancements occurring after 14/1630 UTC, likely associated with the X4.5 flare. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high values, through 15 Sep. Values will likely decrease to normal to moderate levels following the anticipated arrival of the 14 Sep CME. There is a slight, yet increasing chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on 15-16 Sep due to influence from the 14 Sep X4.5 flare event. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced. Total field was between 1-10 nT, the Bz component ranged between +/-8 nT, and the solar wind speeds were between 380-500 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Residual effects from the 11 Sep CME arrival are likely to persist early into 15 Sep. Additional enhancements are likely on 16 Sep with the anticipated onset of the positive polarity CH HSS combined with the arrival of the 13 Sep CME as well as the arrival of the CME associated with the X4.5 flare from earlier today (14 Sep). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels as influence from the 11 Sep CME arrival persisted. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are expected on 15 Sep due to lingering influence from the 11 Sep CME. By midday on 16 Sep, influences from a positive polarity CH HSS, combined with the arrival of the 13 Sep and 14 Sep CMEs, are likely to increase conditions to G3 (Strong) storm levels. Combined CME/CH effects are anticipated to persist into 17 Sep, with G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions likely.