395
FXXX12 KWNP 170031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Jun 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Only C-class events during the past 24 hours. Region 3712 (S26E01, Ekc
/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for most, including the largest of
the period, a C6.7/1F at 1546 UTC. Region 3712 grew larger and more
complex, as did region 3716 (N09E09, DAC/beta)


.Forecast...
The flare potential of Region 3712, coupled with the increasing
potential of Region 3716, is likely to keep solar activity  at moderate
levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during 17-19.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels through 18 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 17-19 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was disturbed, particularly after data were
restored beginning around 16/1115 UTC.  Bz lingered near -8 nT for 3-4
hours after data began to flow.  The solar wind speed climbed to near
450 km/s and the Phi-angle varied between negative and positive sectors.

.Forecast...
Positive polarity CH, fast wind stream influences are expected on 17-18
Jun, with a gradual return to nominal conditions on the 19th.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response to
the disturbed solar wind environment.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
17 Jun, and unsettled to active levels on 18-19 Jun, as a positive
polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.