Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
514 FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... An isolated M3.2/1N flare at 13/1645 UTC from Region 3713 (S13E54, Dso/beta) kept solar activity at moderate levels. Otherwise, sporadic occasional C-class flares were observed from Regions 3712 (S24E38, Dac/beta-gamma), 3714 (N13E10, Bxo/beta), and 3709 (S10W12, Cai/beta). Region 3709 was in slight decay, Region 3711 continued to decay, and Region 3713 appeared to be stable as it rotated further onto the visible disk. Out of the three new regions that were numbered during the period, AR 3714, AR 3715 (N17E35, L=176), and AR 3716 (N10E48, Dao/beta), only 3716 seemed to hold together and grow slightly as it migrated westward. Region 3712 exhibited growth in its intermediate and trailer spots and picked up a beta-gamma configuration. The remaining active regions were stable and relatively quiet. The halo CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 12/2212 UTC seems most likely to a far sided event with other limb events combined. However, ejecta from the M1 flare produced by Region 3711 cant be ruled out. Arrival of any CME from the M1 flare is likely to impact Earth on 15-16 Jun. Although analyzing confidence is low due to challenges with available imagery. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a chance for isolated moderate activity (R1-Minor Radio Blackouts) through 16 Jun. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains below the S1 threshold in response to the far sided halo CME from late on 11 Jun. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 16 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to return to background levels over 14-15 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained near background levels. Total field averaged near 4 nT, the Bz component turned mostly positive midway through the period, and wind speeds remained near 325-350 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive until 13/1706 UTC. .Forecast... Background conditions are anticipated through 14 Jun. By late on 15 Jun to early on 16 Jun, weak enhancements are possible in response to the potential arrival of a CME from 12 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, are anticipated through 14 Jun. Mid day to late on 15 Jun through 16 Jun, unsettled to active periods are possible, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels in response to the possible arrival of a CME from 12 Jun. Confidence remains low with this forecast.