579
FXXX12 KWNP 250031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Sep 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a
C6.9 at 24/1146 UTC from Region 3828 (S11W34, Hax/alpha). Region 3835
(S22E38, Dao/beta) underwent growth and was responsible for multiple
C-class flares, including a C6.5 at 24/0351 UTC. Region 3836 (S10E59,
Dac/beta-gamma) continued to rotate into view and was the most
magnetically complex region. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flares likely and a slight chance for X-class
(R3-Strong) flares on 25-27 Sep.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on 25-27 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels on 25-27 Sep.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under CME influence.
Total field ranged from 2-10 nT while the Bz component was between +/-10
nT. Solar wind speed reached a maximum of 486 km/s before decreasing to
near 400 km/s. Phi angle switched into a positive sector after 24/0130
UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely going to remain enhanced through the
period. A further enhancement is expected early to midday on 25 Sep due
to the arrival of a glancing blow from the 22 Sep CME along with
possible positive polarity CH HSS influence. A slow recovery to nominal
levels is likely by late on 26 Sep.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to
residual CME effects.

.Forecast...
By early to midday on 25 Sep, the combination of a glancing blow from
the 22 Sep CME and HSS effects will likely cause active to G1 (Minor)
storming. Unsettled to active levels will likely persist into 26 Sep. A
return to mostly quiet conditions is expected by 27 Sep.