Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
106 FXXX12 KWNP 141231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels, with Region 3713 (S13E44, Dso/beta-gamma) producing an M3.2/1N flare at 13/1645 UTC and Region 3712 (S23E32, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) adding an M2.4/Sf flare at 14/0432 UTC. Region 3712 exhibited fairly significant growth in its intermediate and trailer spots, picking up a delta configuration, while Region 3713 developed additional spots surrounding its main leader. In addition to these two regions contributing a few C-class flares, Regions 3709 (S10W19, Cao/beta) and 3714 (N13E03, Axx/alpha) added an additional C-class flare each. Region 3709 had slight redevelopment in its intermediate and trailer spots, while Region 3714 continued to decay. Region 3711 (S01W02, Bxo/beta) and Region 3716 (N11E41, Dso/beta) displayed slight growth, but remained docile during the period. From around 14/0849-0940 UTC an approximately 23 long filament, centered near S15W23, was observed in GONG H-Alpha imagery erupting from the visible disk. An analysis will be conducted, once coronagraph imagery fills in, to determine if there is an Earth-directed component. The halo CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 12/2212 UTC seems most likely to a far sided event with other limb events combined. However, ejecta from the M1 flare produced by Region 3711 cant be ruled out. Arrival of any CME from the M1 flare is likely to impact Earth on 15-16 Jun. Although analyzing confidence is low due to challenges with available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a chance for isolated moderate activity (R1-Minor Radio Blackouts) through 16 Jun. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains enhanced, yet below the S1 threshold, in response to the far sided halo CME from late on 11 Jun. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 16 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to return to background levels over 14-15 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a gradual, weak enhancement during the period. Total field averaged near 3 nT before increasing to near 6 nT, the Bz component was mostly positive midway through the period, then saw a slight turn southward to near -5 nT, and wind speeds decreased to near 300 km/s before increasing back to over 350 km/s. Phi spent significant time in both positive and negative orientations. .Forecast... Near background conditions are anticipated through 14 Jun. By late on 15 Jun to early on 16 Jun, weak enhancements are possible in response to the potential arrival of a CME from 12 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, are anticipated through 14 Jun. Mid to late day on 15 Jun through 16 Jun, unsettled to active periods are possible, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels in response to the possible arrival of a CME from 12 Jun. Confidence remains low with this forecast.