159
FXUS63 KDLH 191136
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
636 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will bring cool and dry conditions today and
  tonight.

- Southwest flow aloft will bring chances for showers and
  thunderstorms back to the forecast for Thursday into Thursday
  night.

- A more significant system is on track for Friday into the
  weekend with more rounds of showers and storms expected along
  with chances for heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Low pressure was located over western Lake Superior early this
morning with a cold front trailing across northwestern
Wisconsin, far southeastern Minnesota and into Iowa. Another
weak trough/cold front was analyzed across northwestern
Minnesota. Showers and thunderstorms have moved east of the
region for the most part, although a few light showers lingered
across mainly Iron and Ashland counties. A few light showers
will be possible across the Borderlands this morning as the weak
cold front over northwestern Minnesota moves through, but any
accumulations will be minimal. High pressure over the Northern
Plains will drift eastward today and tonight bringing dry
conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be
cooler with readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s along with
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s resulting in much more comfortable
conditions.

Thursday will see the high shrink in size over Lake Superior as
southwest flow brings chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms over mainly the southern half of the CWA in
association with a warm front. Models have backed off a bit on
this first wave of precipitation Thursday into Thursday night
with the high hanging on over western Lake Superior. The
strength of the high could play a role in how far north the
rain chances get with some chance that they remain to our south.
Highs will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s, although readings
in the middle 70s will be possible in portions of Koochiching,
northern Itasca and northern St. Louis counties where rain is
not expected to reach.

The warm front will lift further north on Friday with better
chances for showers and storms moving into the region. Gulf
moisture will push northward behind the warm front, but
questions remain as to how far north the warm front will reach
or if it moves into our CWA at all and remains to our south. If
it does move into the CWA, PWATs are once again expected to be
near the top of climatology leading to a heavy rainfall threat
across mainly northwest Wisconsin at this point. The SPC has
introduced a Marginal Risk of severe storms across mainly Pine
and Burnett counties, mainly for large hail with storms north of
the warm front. Forecast soundings don`t show much for
instability, but there will be about 30 knots of shear, so some
marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out during the afternoon
and evening hours. Temperatures look to remain cool across the
region, especially if the warm front remains to the south, with
easterly winds off Lake Superior.

Low pressure will move across the region for Saturday and
Sunday. Models disagree on the track of the low and this will be
a factor on where the rain occurs and how much occurs. Northwest
Wisconsin currently looks to see the bulk of the rainfall during
this period which may exacerbate already high rivers and streams
following Tuesday`s rainfall. Rain chances will linger into the
new week as warmer temperatures look to move in to the region as
well with highs in the 80s heading into the new week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

MVFR to IFR ceilings remain in place this morning in the wake of
a cold front. Slow improvement to VFR is expected this morning,
but skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers may
linger over the next few hours and may briefly drop visibilities
to MVFR. Winds will be northwesterly today with gusts to 15 to
20 mph before diminishing this evening and tonight. VFR
conditions then prevail for tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

High pressure will move in for today and tonight with variable
winds at around 15 knots or less. Some fog may linger along the
North Shore this morning, but is expected to quickly burn off
after sunrise. Chances for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will be seen for Thursday and Thursday night, but
they may remain to the south of the lake. Winds will be easterly
at 10 to 15 knots during this period.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-018-019-
     025-026.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH