Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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496 FXUS63 KDLH 230536 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool temperatures bring a chance for frost tonight into Monday morning. - Fairly quiet weather this week with temperatures steadily warming back well above normal. - Next chance of widespread precipitation sometime next weekend or into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Much cooler temperatures have arrived along with a much drier airmass. A diurnal cumulus deck should dissipate quickly into the evening hours. Mostly clear conditions persist overnight, with some high clouds beginning to push in before sunrise Monday. This should still be conducive to seeing relatively chilly overnight temperatures in the 30s and low 40s, though it is fairly climatological for this time of year. This could lead to areas of frost across much of the Northland away from Lake Superior. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for tonight. Another quiet and seasonable day Monday with high temperatures swinging back into the mid to high 60s. Increasing clouds Monday evening into Tuesday as a shortwave lengthens across the Northern Plains. Very dry air at the surface is likely to prevent much in the way of precipitation from this system. The rainiest solution from ensembles brings a trace to International Falls and most models keep any precipitation from falling. As that shortwave becomes a cutoff low and falls southward, we`ll see ridging return, with a gentle warm up hedging towards mid to upper 70s mid to late week. This is still 10 to 20 degrees above normal, but is not expected to be as hot and muggy as last week`s heinous summer-like heat wave. A lack of precipitation, a dry airmass, and clear skies should lead to good cool downs overnight. Global ensembles bring back a widespread chance of precipitation sometime next weekend into next week as a disturbance returns from the Gulf of Mexico, but timing will be dependent on how fast the ridge breaks down. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Patchy fog will be possible tonight and observations reveal some has formed with the visibility to IFR in spots. We added a mention of fog to KHYR/KHIB/KBRD despite the models having probabilities of MVFR visibility of only 10-20%. The fog will lift by 14Z then expect VFR conditions with mid to high clouds moving through the region. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Breezy northwest winds will continue to come down through this evening. Winds become easterly Monday which will probably lead to a little chop along the North Shore and through the outer Apostle Islands. No significant weather or winds expected early to mid week. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012- 018>021-026-035>038. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...Melde MARINE...Levens