Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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762 FXUS63 KDLH 162054 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 354 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms into this evening. - A 5-10% chance of a strong to severe thunderstorm and a 5% chance of heavy rainfall in far north-central Minnesota later this evening and overnight. - Warm continues through mid-week before gradually cooling to normal by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Low pressure deepening over the northern high plains is expected to trigger strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms over the northern plains this evening. As the storms move northeastward, a few stronger thunderstorms could (5-10% chance) move through just east enough to impact far north-central Minnesota later this evening as a result. If any stronger thunderstorms do realize into an isolated severe thunderstorm, hail around the size of a quarter would be the primary expected hazard type. The seasonably moist airmass over the Northland keeps concerns for heavy rainfall in the region too, so any strong to severe thunderstorm could (5% chance) be accompanied by heavy rainfall as well into early Tuesday morning. As the low moves eastward Tuesday, general thunderstorm chances (30-40% chance) are forecast into tomorrow morning. A stalled boundary along the Borderlands could (20-30% chance) also promote further general thunderstorms into Tuesday night. Drier weather looks likely (90% chance) on Wednesday as a drier air mass may promote decreased relative humidity from a drop in dew points into the 50 degree F range behind the passing low pressure. A western trough begins to breakdown Wednesday and low pressure lifts into the northern high plains to deepen into Thursday. A cold front passes over the region later Thursday. This Thursday night time period looks to be the best chances for more widespread rainfall (light to moderate) as the western low pressure centered in south-central Canada brings in cooler westerly air behind the front. This late work week into weekend time period looks to be the first time of returning to normal to below normal temperatures this fall! Stratiform and widespread rainfall returns later Saturday and into Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Weak widely scattered thunderstorms in the Arrowhead and mainly north of the Iron Range in far northern Minnesota and across parts of northwest Wisconsin persist into this evening. Another round of strong thunderstorms are expected to form in the northern Great Plains late this afternoon and into the evening hours which could just scrape far north-central Minnesota later this evening, including INL. Another period of scattered thunderstorms could start up Tuesday daytime again in the Borderlands. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Light winds generally less than 15 knots are forecast outside of scattered thunderstorms where gusty, erratic winds may occur this evening and again Tuesday on the North Shore. Dry weather is forecast on Wednesday over the lake. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...NLy MARINE...NLy