152
FXUS63 KDLH 261727
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1227 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and cooler today after some morning showers.

- Next system moves through the region starting late Thursday
  and lingering into the weekend. Potential for moderate to
  heavy rainfall at times and a chance for strong to severe
  storms Friday as well.

- The pattern remains active to start the week with another
  system moving through before a potentially quieter period for
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 511 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A weak frontal boundary was draped across northern Minnesota
early this morning with an area of showers and embedded thunder
moving through the Minnesota Arrowhead. This activity is
expected to slide to the south east this morning as high
pressure builds in from the northwest bringing dry conditions by
late morning. A few models do try to keep some shower activity
across the region through the day, but increasingly dry air at
the surface should limit this potential. Highs will be cooler
than yesterday reaching into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

High pressure will move over Lake Michigan by Thursday
afternoon. Southerly winds on the backside of this high will
begin to bring Gulf moisture into the region with PWATs nearing
1.75" which is over the 90th percentile for late June. An upper
level trough will move out of the Rockies Thursday night into
Friday and lift a warm front into the Upper Midwest. Models have
been in fairly good agreement in lifting this warm front into
northern Minnesota, roughly between the Iron Range and
Borderlands Thursday night. This will lead to showers and
thunderstorms starting Thursday night and continuing into
Friday. As the low moves into the Red River Valley of the North
Friday, it will drag a cold front into the region as well.
Instability looks to be modest ahead of the cold front around
1000-2000 J/kg, but shear will be quite favorable for some
supercells at 40-50 knots in the warm sector ahead of the cold
front. However, ongoing convection may limit this potential and
the best forcing looks to lag behind the front. Still, there
will be a window during the afternoon and evening Friday where
some strong to severe storms will be possible. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats, but heavy
rainfall will also be a concern with the high PWATs in place.
Flooding potential remains elevated as well with the saturated
soils and existing high streamflows in the region. The low will
kick off to the east on Saturday, but a trailing trough may keep
showers and isolated thunder in place into Saturday evening
before finally ending. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the
60s and 70s before cooling into the 60s Saturday.

Following a break on Sunday, another upper level trough will
emerge from the Rockies Monday and move across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest into Tuesday. This will lead to more
showers and storms across the region. There are hints at some
strong to severe storms being possible along with more heavy
rainfall per the CSU machine learning probs and SPC outlooks.
Still a lot of time for this to change, but concern remains
heightened with the recent flooding and continued high
streamflows. Highs during this time frame will be in the 60s and
70s with 70s and lower 80s possible Tuesday ahead of the cold
front. The pattern for the middle and latter part of the week
looks to become less active, but with northwest flow aloft and
surface high pressure across the eastern CONUS, would not be
surprised if the pattern remains a bit more active with
shortwaves propagating through the northwest flow regime.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Scattered MVFR ceilings are ongoing across the entire forecast
area through this afternoon, with vicinity showers in the MN
Arrowhead and Borderlands through this evening. Generally light
north winds today become calm overnight before shifting to
remain light out of the south Thursday daytime. There is a
50-60% chance of at least MVFR, locally IFR, fog tonight at area
terminals from 06-12Z Saturday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 511 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Easterly winds this morning may briefly gust to around 20 knots
before becoming variable at around 10 knots or less by late
morning as high pressure moves in. Winds will remain variable at
around 10 knots or less into Thursday before becoming easterly
at 5 to 10 knots Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Showers
and a brief thunderstorm will be possible this morning before
more chances arrive Thursday night and into Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...BJH