Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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777 FXUS63 KDLH 151014 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 514 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The late season warmth continues with highs up to 10 to 15 degrees above normal through much of the week. - Low chances for showers and a few thunderstorms are in place this afternoon. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through much of the week but the chances for soaking rainfall is low overall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 514 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure was in control across the eastern half of the CONUS this morning with a few lingering light showers across parts of northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan. Areas of fog were also present across the region. With the high in place to the east, the Upper Midwest remains on the western periphery with persistent southwest flow through much of the column keeping the supply of warm air flowing into the region. This will lead to highs today in the 80s away from Lake Superior. Additionally, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly for areas along and west of US 53 and north of Minnesota Highway 210. With the high to the east and a strong trough to the west, this creates a ring of fire pattern from the Deep South into the Plains and northward into the Upper Midwest. While there will be chances for thunderstorms, severe storms are not expected. While there will be around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, shear will be less than 20 knots and mid-level lapse rates around 6 C/km so any storms that do develop will not be organized and will not be a hail threat. Winds through the column will be under 30 knots, so damaging wind gusts will not be a threat either. This pattern does not look to break down until next weekend or into early next week. As such, temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and 80s for highs with lows in the upper 50s and 60s. Nearly daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist across our western and northwestern zones as well. There is some signal for perhaps some better chances for rainfall heading into the weekend and for cooler temperatures during this time period as well. Highs for the weekend look to cool closer to normal with readings in the 60s and lower 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 111 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Primary concern in the near term is the development of fog and low ceilings through mid morning. HIB is the most likely to see IFR or lower VSBYs and CIGs this morning with DLH, BRD and HYR expected to see MVFR or lower conditions. Fog activity looks to remain south of INL, so have removed with this update. Fog lifts by mid morning leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Light winds overnight will give way to gusty southwest winds through the day Sunday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening hours at INL. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 514 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Winds will be northeasterly today at 5 to 15 knots before becoming variable tonight at 10 knots or less. Winds will remain variable at 6 to 12 knots for Monday and Monday night before turning more easterly for Tuesday. Areas of fog will be possible tonight along with chances for showers and a few storms that will linger into Monday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...BJH MARINE...BJH