513
FXUS63 KDLH 231724
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quiet week is expected across the Northland with dry conditions
  for most through next weekend.

- Temperatures will start out near normal today then rise to 10
  to around 15 degrees above normal by mid-week, continuing
  above normal into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A quiet week is expected across the Northland with dry conditions
for most through next weekend. An upper level trough will dive
southeast today into the Northern Plains, continuing southeast
tonight. This feature will have limited moisture available and much
of the guidance, including most of the 80 ensemble members of the
ECMWF/GFS, have little precipitation with this trough for tonight
into Tuesday. We will carry low, 20-30%, POPs for western portions
of the Northland tonight with QPF less than 0.10". Tonight will
again be cool, especially for the Arrowhead and interior portions of
northwest Wisconsin where some patchy frost could again occur. If
cloud cover is more extensive than currently forecast, we may be a
bit low on our temperatures.

The upper trough will continue south on Tuesday eventually cutting
off and retrograding across the south-central CONUS. Upper ridging
will move east over the Northland mid-late week and with the upper
low to the south, creating a rex block which will aid in keeping the
Northland dry into Saturday with high temperatures rising 10 to
around 15F above normal by mid-week with these warmer temperatures
continuing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is a
slight chance for a shower at BRD and INL late this evening into
early Tuesday morning, but more likely it will be virga with VFR
ceilings still. Have opted to not include a VCSH mention at either
terminal because chances are so low. Some gusty south winds today
should die down overnight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Winds today into Tuesday will be at or less than 15 knots with only
a few gusts a bit higher at times. The wind will become easterly
today as high pressure moves through. Winds will become southerly
tonight then they will become onshore Tuesday. Given the expected
winds, wave heights will be at or below 3 feet through Tuesday.
Looking ahead, not periods of stronger winds are expected through
late week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Melde