156
FXUS63 KDLH 260008
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
708 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms are not
  expected to be severe, but there could be a few strong storms
  this afternoon into this evening.

- Storms weaken late this evening and rain lingers overnight
  over a narrow band.

- Active weather continues through early next week with rain and
  thunderstorms.

- Weather quiets down midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

After a fairly pleasant day, a 35 to 50 kt LLJ will bring in
moisture from the southwest and destabilize the atmosphere this
afternoon and evening. This should spawn some thunderstorm
activity. While the parameter space is not overly remarkable, it
also isn`t weak. Deep layer shear is hovering around 50 kt with
CAPE sub-1000 J/kg. Updraft Helicity is not great, but there is
a couple hour window late this afternoon along a baroclinic
zone that extends from Brainerd to Duluth and slightly eastward
into NW WI that could be a focal point for the stronger storms.
Already see a little convection going up west of St. Cloud and
the preceding visible satellite field is indicative of a high
shear environment with decreasing stability. Steep low level
lapse rates are also developing with all of the insolation that
occurred earlier in the day. All this to say, that it could be a
bit active over the next 3 to 6 hours before setting down
overnight. While it does calm down thunderstorm-wise, there
still will be moisture advecting along this same boundary
overnight causing lighter rain. May have to watch for minor
flooding if cells train given our recent influx of water.

Tonight clouds clear near Koochiching County allowing for just
enough cold air to warrant a Frost Advisory.

The next system on deck will cross Sunday afternoon but largely
miss us to the south. This system does have a high PWATS and
some potential to provide heavy rainfall across the southern
portion of our forecast area in NW WI.

A fast-moving clipper follows for a little more rain on Monday
and an upper low on Tuesday into Wednesday for more shower
activity.

High pressure builds Wednesday and should linger into Friday
giving us a short dry period before the next trough brings a
return of rain for the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms is working across
northwestern Wisconsin early this evening and will exit the
region over the next few hours. Conditions have remained VFR for
the most part with this activity with a few briefs dips to MVFR.
Additional rounds of showers with some embedded thunder will
continue through much of the remainder of the period. Overall
conditions are expected to remain VFR with perhaps some brief
dips to MVFR when any showers move over a terminal. Confidence
in timing on this is low, so have treated with VCSH for the most
part. Better chances for rainfall are expected Sunday afternoon
at HYR and have added a period of prevailing rain there. Gusty
winds this evening will diminish after sunset with generally
light and variable winds overnight. Winds Sunday will be around
10 knots or less.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Pesky southwest winds have been slow to subside, so extended the
small craft into this evening. Thunderstorms will disrupt the
flow a bit this evening leading to a much quieter night wind-
wise over the waters. Winds will stay fairly quiet for the
remainder of the weekend except near the Twin Ports where they
will get close to 20 kt by Sunday afternoon - may need some
small crafts for this.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ010.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Wolfe