Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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493 FXUS63 KDLH 242326 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 626 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fairly quiet weather continues this week with above normal temperatures. - Next chance of widespread precipitation sometime into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A shortwave continues to lengthen across the Upper Midwest today, pushing a weak front across Minnesota. There has been some slightly more robust strato-cumulus development along this front from International Falls to the Brainerd Lakes, but cloud bases are still high with fairly dry air at the surface. A couple light showers might be possible but rainfall amounts of only some scattered hundredths are possible. As this pushes through some lingering higher dewpoints in the 50s could allow for patchy dense fog development overnight into Wednesday morning. As that shortwave becomes a cutoff low and falls southward, joining up with the tropical disturbance expected to impact the eastern Gulf later this week, ridging develops over the Northern Plains. This will lead to a gentle warm up with highs mid to upper 70s mid through Saturday. This is still 10 to 20 degrees above normal, but is not expected to be as hot and muggy as last week`s heinous summer- like heat wave as dewpoints are unlikely to meet or exceed 60F. A lack of precipitation, a dry airmass, and clear skies should lead to good cool downs overnight. Global ensembles bring back a more widespread chance of precipitation sometime early next week as a disturbance returns from the Gulf of Mexico, but timing will be dependent on how fast the ridge breaks down. Right now, model agreement really starts to fall apart around Sunday/Monday and precipitation return timing continues to push further back, so confidence is low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Fog is the main concern with this terminal forecast. Radiation based fog should develop for KDLH, KHIB and KHYR in the 10z-13z time range, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected. KHIB may get into IFR visibilities, but the others should remain MVFR. Winds of less than 5 knots are expected through this TAF period. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 No significant weather or winds expected over the next couple days. Winds should become southwesterly Wednesday and some gusts up to 20 knots with some waves up to 3 feet feet are possible near Grand Portage for a short period in the late afternoon and early evening. Fairly light onshore flow is expected Thursday with an afternoon lake breeze developing out of marginal southerly winds in the morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...LE MARINE...Levens