762
FXUS63 KDLH 162054
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
354 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms into this evening.

- A 5-10% chance of a strong to severe thunderstorm and a 5%
  chance of heavy rainfall in far north-central Minnesota later
  this evening and overnight.

- Warm continues through mid-week before gradually cooling to
  normal by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Low pressure deepening over the northern high plains is expected
to trigger strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms over
the northern plains this evening. As the storms move
northeastward, a few stronger thunderstorms could (5-10% chance)
move through just east enough to impact far north-central
Minnesota later this evening as a result. If any stronger
thunderstorms do realize into an isolated severe thunderstorm,
hail around the size of a quarter would be the primary expected
hazard type. The seasonably moist airmass over the Northland
keeps concerns for heavy rainfall in the region too, so any
strong to severe thunderstorm could (5% chance) be accompanied
by heavy rainfall as well into early Tuesday morning.

As the low moves eastward Tuesday, general thunderstorm chances
(30-40% chance) are forecast into tomorrow morning. A stalled
boundary along the Borderlands could (20-30% chance) also
promote further general thunderstorms into Tuesday night. Drier
weather looks likely (90% chance) on Wednesday as a drier air
mass may promote decreased relative humidity from a drop in dew
points into the 50 degree F range behind the passing low
pressure.

A western trough begins to breakdown Wednesday and low pressure
lifts into the northern high plains to deepen into Thursday. A
cold front passes over the region later Thursday. This Thursday
night time period looks to be the best chances for more
widespread rainfall (light to moderate) as the western low
pressure centered in south-central Canada brings in cooler
westerly air behind the front. This late work week into weekend
time period looks to be the first time of returning to normal to
below normal temperatures this fall! Stratiform and widespread
rainfall returns later Saturday and into Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Weak widely scattered thunderstorms in the Arrowhead and mainly
north of the Iron Range in far northern Minnesota and across
parts of northwest Wisconsin persist into this evening. Another
round of strong thunderstorms are expected to form in the
northern Great Plains late this afternoon and into the evening
hours which could just scrape far north-central Minnesota later
this evening, including INL. Another period of scattered
thunderstorms could start up Tuesday daytime again in the
Borderlands.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Light winds generally less than 15 knots are forecast outside of
scattered thunderstorms where gusty, erratic winds may occur
this evening and again Tuesday on the North Shore. Dry weather
is forecast on Wednesday over the lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy