Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
406 FXUS63 KDLH 251728 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog will be observed in parts of the Northland through early this morning before tapering in coverage by mid-morning. - Warm temperatures well-above normal persist mid-week through Sunday. - A cold front is expected to cross over the region sometime early next week and will bring cooler temperatures back to near to slightly below normal and may (20-30% chance) bring rain showers back into the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A weak cool front ahead a Canadian shortwave trough departs the Western Great Lakes and leaves the Upper Midwest between that feature and a high amplitude ridge over the Northern High Plains. As that larger-scale ridge axis shifts eastward, the ongoing fog in the Northland is forecast to expand in coverage into early Wednesday morning. Surface observations show locally dense fog producing visibility around 1/4 mile. Into the pre- sunrise early morning hours today, expect more widespread coverage of reduced visibilities for the morning commute. It is yet to be seen if the spatial coverage of dense fog will warrant an Advisory or not, but satellite imagery, surface observations and webcams will be monitored over the next few hours. Fog lifts this morning from 8-9 AM today back to mostly sunny skies. Southerly return flow associated with that ridge axis shift eastward allows temperatures to warm to well-above normal starting today. Maximum temperatures are forecast for the mid to upper-70s. A few locations in north-central Minnesota are expected to reach that 80 F mark even this afternoon. The temperatures increase a few more degrees into the end of this work week and linger into the weekend. Deterministic model guidance shows a fair signal for a potent, but fairly dry, cold front dropping southward next Monday PM and Monday night. There is a return of 10-30% chance of rain showers in the forecast with that cold front right now, but the dry profiles do not favor much more than scattered light rain showers right now for Monday into Tuesday. A drop in temperatures to slightly below normal for the first day of October is much more likely though for next Monday night into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail into tonight with high pressure in control. MVFR to LIFR fog and ceilings are expected to develop after 06z at DLH, HIB and HYR once again with clear skies and light winds overnight. VFR conditions then return by mid-morning Thursday for the remainder of the period with winds under 10 knots. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots today gust locally near Grand Portage to 20 knots. Wave heights up to 3 feet are also forecast for those far North Shore waters today before southwest winds taper overnight tonight and to easterly Thursday 5-10 knots. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...BJH MARINE...NLy